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152
FXUS63 KICT 162346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) across central KS late this
  evening into the overnight

- Southerly winds up to 45 mph Monday and Tuesday

- Hot temperatures continue into next week

- Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday
  through Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

As of 2 PM Sunday afternoon, a midlevel ridge axis was
amplifying across the eastern CONUS while a shortwave trough
digs across the northwest US. Closer to home, another morning of
WAA driven showers/storms trained across portions of McPherson,
Marion, and Chase counties. At this hour, this activity has
dissipated and dry conditions prevail area-wide. A remnant MCV
is noted on satellite imagery across northern OK and may
contribute to additional shower/storm development across
southern KS through early evening. Otherwise, another warm and
humid afternoon is expected with temperatures in the 90s and dew
points near 70. Combining these two will yield heat index
values near 100 degrees. Further west, a surface trough axis
continues to deepen across the high Plains. While large scale
ascent remains meager, strong surface heating and upslope flow
across northeast CO and adjacent portions of NE and KS should
allow thunderstorm development later this afternoon. A strong
LLJ near 50 kt could provide sufficient WAA for storm
maintenance into portions of central KS. Given this potential,
have added a slight chance for thunderstorms across central KS
late this evening and early Monday morning. Damaging winds up to
60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are possible with any storm
overnight.

Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will continue
to amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Continued lee troughing across the
high Plains will yield a strong pressure gradient Monday and
Tuesday. Southerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible, especially
across central KS. In addition, warm conditions will continue with
temperatures in the 80s and 90s much of the week. The previously
mentioned northwestern US trough will pivot into the central states
Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should
shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. Confidence
continues to increase for additional shower/storm chances Tuesday
through Thursday, especially across central and northern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Gusty southerly winds are mainly the only concern aviation wise
for this forecast period. Winds will pick up closer to
sustained speeds of 20 to 25 kts on Monday morning with gusts of
30 to 40 kts. VFR conditions should prevail. There is a slight
chance that storms off to the west and north may track into
north central Kansas after 6Z. Confidence is not high enough in
this issuance for any mention at this time. This will be
assessed through the evening to determine if something needs to
be added, but a change may not be inserted until the 6Z
issuance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...VJP