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887
FXUS63 KICT 150753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A few strong to severe storms possible from late afternoon
  through tonight, mainly north and west of the KS-turnpike.

- Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across
  portions of central and south central KS.

- Additional storms possible again Tuesday-Thursday
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A compact shortwave trough axis is starting to emerge over eastern
Colorado and will move across Kansas from mid-afternoon through late
evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will
be possible by early afternoon and thru the evening as the
associated PV wave impinges on the CWA. Best chances (20%) for
storms across the area will be mainly north and west of the KS
turnpike. Storms that can form may be strong to marginally
severe. Increasing moisture advection is expected to expand
across the area through tonight with a modest LLJ overhead, thus
chances (20-25%) of elevated showers and storms will continue
thru the overnight.

By tomorrow afternoon, longwave troughing will begin to dominate the
western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern CONUS resulting in
continued southerly to southwesterly flow overhead. Heat indices
will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central
and south central KS. Lee troughing will tighten up the
pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly
winds to the area thru mid week, with temps in the 90s
continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a wave
through the main western trough will push a cold front through
the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Late week
the pattern turns more zonal with chances of intermittent
shower and storms continuing through Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms over the next few hours
along with storm chances later this afternoon and evening.

Currently have a line of storms making their way across central
KS and will affect KSLN in the next couple of hours. There is
also a chance a storm or two could affect KHUT. Once storms
move-off to the east we will see a lull in activity. Currently
have an upper impulse tracking across northeast CO/nw KS and
will continue tacking off to the northeast today. This feature
may provide enough lift to generate a few storms this afternoon
or early evening. However, with lack of surface focus,
confidence is not high enough to insert into TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...RBL