Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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696 FXUS63 KICT 201132 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for storms Saturday night with a few strong/severe storms possible. - Unseasonably hot temperatures expected to start Sunday and ramp up for the Mon-Wed time frame. Many locations through this period will see highs at or even a few degrees higher than 100 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Water vapor imagery shows some shortwave energy coming onshore over Central/Southern CA with some northern stream energy over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, upper ridging extends from the Mid Atlantic States into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Great Lakes region, with a weak cold front from Central IL through Central MO and starts to wash out across Southern KS. A few storms have been lifting across central KS overnight in an area of weak 850mb moisture transport. By 12z, storms should be tracking out of the forecast area. Not much is expected to change in the overall pattern today with additional upper energy digging over Central CA and upper ridging centered over the Tennessee Valley. The best storm chances tonight will be well north of the forecast area in an area of good low level jet convergence. On Fri, the western CONUS impulse will start to quickly lift northeast and will track across the Great Basin and into the Central Plains Fri night into Sat morning. A weak cold front will then track south on Sat as the upper wave moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Front is expected to move through Sat night with some scattered storms possible along it. However, confidence is low on how widespread storms will be as our forecast area will be pretty far removed from the better upper dynamics. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with any storms that develop Sat night. The main story through this forecast package will be extreme heat that is expected to build-in by the start of next week. This will be the result of upper ridging strengthening from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains with 30C 850mb temps moving-in by Mon and remaining through at least Tue. This will bring widespread highs at the century mark or even a few degrees above. These highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Main aviation concern will be some low clouds this morning. Currently have some LIFR cigs along and north of I-70 and these are expected to stick around for another couple of hours before quickly lifting north. After this, VFR conditions are expected for the remaining sites through the remainder of the day. Winds will come around to the southeast this morning at all sites.
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&& .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...RBL