-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
033
FXUS63 KICT 191144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms will continue today with some pockets
  of heavy rain and localized flooding possible.

- Above normal temps return for the weekend into next week with
  some locations getting close to 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Storms developed along the cold front late Tue afternoon/evening
and with the help of outflow the storms and effective cold front
currently stretches from the northern TX Panhandle, into
southern KS and to north of Kansas City. The shortwave that
allowed the front to push south is currently moving into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

Current thinking is that showers and a few storms will linger
this morning across south central and parts of central KS as
850mb flow remains out of the south even north of the surface
front. A high PW airmass will also remain in place today, with
PW values around 175% of normal. For this morning is looks like
the best chance for heavy rainfall and widespread flooding will
be southwest of the forecast area of western OK into the TX
Panhandle where low level jet will remain more backed resulting
in better convergence. However, high rainfall rates will be
likely across our area with the more intense activity which may
lead to additional localized flooding. We should see a gradual
decrease in shower/storm coverage this afternoon as the front
starts to wash out and the better isentropic lift shifts north.

By Thu morning, upper ridging will extend from the Mid Atlantic
States into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, there is good model
agreement that some shortwave energy will be coming onshore over
central/southern CA with a northern stream impulse tracking east
across the Pacific Northwest. For Fri, upper ridging is expected
to expand into the Ozark region and lower Mississippi Valley.
The Western CONUS upper energy is then expected to quickly track
across the Great Basin on Fri night and across the Central
Plains. This will allow a weak cold front/surface trough to push
south, moving through KS on Sat night into Sun and after today,
will bring our next shower/storm chances. However, confidence is
low that we will see anything as widespread as we are seeing
right now, as the front/trough that moves through will be very
progressive. For the the start of the next work week, there is
good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in upper ridging
building from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains
and will allow anomalously warm 850mb temps to move-in from the
southwest, bringing widespread highs around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Main aviation concern will be showers and storms today.

Scattered showers and a couple storms will continue across much
of the area today, especially during the morning hours. The
exception will be KCNU, which is not expected to see much precip
at all. Rainfall should gradually lift north this afternoon,
with only central KS seeing rain after 21z. Not expecting too
severe of vis restrictions with the rain, with 5-6sm at the
worst. Some IFR cigs moved into central KS a few hours ago and
should linger for at least the next few hours at KRSL-KGBD.
However, feel these should lift once rain showers increase in
coverage.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL