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458
FXUS62 KILM 240754
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid weather will continue. Strong thunderstorms today
will be caused by a front as it sinks into the area, the
boundary then to lift back to the north Tuesday. Another
boundary and upper disturbance will bring good rain chances
Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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Breezy onshore flow this morning will become westerly this afternoon
ahead of a cold front. Transitional flow from onshore to offshore
will expand hot temperatures observed yesterday toward the coast,
but should help dew points inland. Inland areas reached the upper
90s to near 100 yesterday and low level thicknesses indicate that
this is possible again today, even near the coast. Dew points in the
upper 70s this morning will mix into the low 70s along the coast and
upper 60s inland. Heat indices will be in excess of 100 degrees
today. Sensitive groups and those performing strenuous outdoor
activity should take extra precaution.

A cold front currently analyzed over central Tennessee will push
through the western Carolinas this morning with the help of an upper
level trough. The front will reach the central Carolinas and
struggle to push farther east during the day. The surface trough
ahead of the front and the development of showers and storms should
carry activity through the afternoon via a surface cold pool,
steepening mid level lapse rates, and abundant surface heating.

Significantly drier air aloft associated with the trough will ride
over the hot and humid boundary layer as the convective forcing
pushes eastward. While some mixing of the dry air may prove to be
challenging inland, the majority of the area will have enough BL
heat and humidity to generate deep instability. Dry air mixing into
strong updrafts along with modest shear could lead to the
development of isolated severe weather in strong wind gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop with the
best chance of storms along and east of I-95 during the early
afternoon.

The stalled cold front will keep most of the area east of I-95 in a
humid air mass overnight. Temperatures in the mid to low 70s will
offer very little relief.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The main story through the period will be the above normal
temperatures as precipitation will be somewhat hard to come by
especially Tuesday. This is because of a weak boundary that slides
off to our south. It won`t do much to temper the heat but slightly
lower dewpoints will be responsible for keeping showers/storms
isolated at best (better chances S vs. N) and also likely preclude a
heat advisory. The wet looking GFS is an outlier and also seemingly
contradicting its still relatively dry forecast soundings.

The weakening boundary lifts back to our north on Wednesday. Surface
dewpoints will recover to the point where HI values could require an
advisory. THe mid and upper levels however remain quite dry with PW
values barely exceeding 1.0" keeping POPs capped in the 20-30 range.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms become widespread on Thursday as the next
weak shortwave moves through. This mid level feature will benefit
from low level ascent offered by a cold front with either a surface
trough or weakly closed low. With such widespread activity it seems
plausible that guidance may be a few degrees too warm and so a few
were shaved off, yet another day of above normal expected (no
advisory though).  With the boundary still in the vicinity on Friday
the weather should remain unsettled, just not to the extent of
Thursday. Mid level ridging should turn the heat back up over the
weekend while suppressing thunderstorm coverage to typical values of
about 30.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and onshore flow will keep MVFR potential near the coast
overnight, although this appears to remain periodic. IFR is
possible along the Grand Strand prior to sunrise. Hot
temperatures developing during the day should help develop a
broken eastward-moving line of thunderstorms Monday afternoon,
potentially affecting KFLO and KLBT as early as 17-18z, then
moving down to the coast a couple hours later. High-res model
blends show the highest risk for convective impacts occurring at
the KILM airport between 19z-22z where low visibility in heavy
rain has a moderate potential to occur.

Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight... Remaining breezy this morning ahead of a cold
front with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end just after
sunrise. Winds turn SW this afternoon and weaken slightly, enough to
see an end to SCA conditions. The cold front will produce showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon over land and this line of storms
will impact the nearshore waters by late afternoon into this
evening. Strong wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms
which is expected to persist over the warm waters overnight.
Variable winds in the presence of showers and thunderstorms should
become easterly on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday... Post-frontal onshore flow Tuesday will
shorten wave periods a bit as seas adjust to the long period of
southerly winds leading up to the wind shift. Veering already slated
for Tuesday night already as boundary lifts back to the north and
these winds will stay quite light as the main area of high pressure
offshore is shunted eastward. Another boundary sinks into the area
Thursday into Friday. The still very light winds could acquire some
variability but in the absence of any swell energy seas will remain
close to the normal 2-3 ft range, occasionally higher due to periods
of onshore flow.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM