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070
FXUS63 KIWX 052300
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
700 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Showers and storms will exit the area this evening.

- Warm and humid conditions give way to cooler than normal
  temperatures for much of the next seven days.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A pre-frontal trough is still bringing showers and thunderstorms
to the region this afternoon, with the strongest storms now
moving into northwest Ohio. These storms should move east of the
forecast area by around 3 pm ET. Another line of convection is
developing along the cold front in eastern Illinois. However,
due to the morning activity, MUCAPE has now dropped below 1000
J/kg across most of northern Indiana. It may still increase
some as the front moves in and we get some breaks in the cloud
cover allowing temperatures to rebound a bit. Dewpoints are
still well into the 60s, but surface temperatures have fallen
into the upper 60s to low 70s. Therefore, any additional storms
that move into the area are likely to be sub-severe, with heavy
rain being the biggest threats. Another shortwave will then
rotate around the upper low that is centered in south-central
Canada later this evening and overnight, with a low chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in Michigan.

Cooler and drier conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday
and the wake of today`s front. Friday`s highs will only be in
the mid 60s to low 70s. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Saturday as a weather disturbance drops
down from the northwest. Light showers then remain possible
through Sunday. High pressure builds in on Monday and Tuesday,
with temperatures warming back to near 80 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Prefrontal trough has pushed E/SE of the terminals. A stray
shower and brief MVFR ceiling can`t be ruled out this evening
but overall expect dry, VFR conditions to prevail. A secondary
cold front passes late tonight but lower levels will be too dry
to support anything more than a stray sprinkle with VFR
ceilings. Only other aviation concern will be gusty winds on
Thursday as surface low drops into the Great Lakes.
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&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for LMZ046.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...AGD