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775
FXUS64 KJAN 241951
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
251 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight and Tuesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1016mb
high centered over the Tennessee valley that was pushing a weak
backdoor cold front into northeast Mississippi. Farther south across
our CWA between Interstate 20 and Highway 84, a prefrontal trough
was drifting south and local radars showed a broken band of showers
and a few thunderstorms associated with it. Both the cold front and
prefrontal trough will continue drifting south this afternoon and
evening. The cold front is expected to move into our northeast zones
this evening before the cold front stalls. The prefrontal trough
will be south of our CWA by this evening and end the rain chances
across our southeast zones. Over our delta region temperatures and
humidity have been greater than anticipated and prompted the
issuance of an Excessive Heat Warning as heat index values exceeded
110F and will continue above 110F for several hours this afternoon
before lowering this evening. Heat and humidity will remain a
concern Tuesday. The surface high to our northeast will shift east
allowing for a weak return flow by late afternoon. With temperatures
topping out a couple degrees warmer Tuesday than today, an Excessive
Heat Warning may be needed for our northwest again while the
remainder of the CWA remains in a Heat Advisory. During the
afternoon there will be isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over our southern zones but these will provide little
relief from the heat. /22/

Tuesday night through next Monday...

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper shortwave is expected to
dig into to northern MS, bringing a weak surface boundary across the
northern portions of the CWA. Along with this, deep layer moisture
will continue to be present, which will generate scattered showers
and some storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon into the
evening hours. Cloud cover and slightly lower dewpoints will
decrease dangerous heat across central and eastern MS, but look to
still flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Elsewhere, Heat Indices
will continue to range between 105-100 degF. By Thursday, the
boundary is expected to migrate along central and southern portions
of the CWA, which will shift isolated to showers southeastwards,
with the greatest potential for precipitation in the Pine Belt
region. Heat indices are expected to be subdued on Thursday, with
indices struggling to meet Heat Advisory criteria.

By Friday into the weekend, deep ridging will begin to take place,
enabling W/NW flow into the region. In the mid-levels, a strong high
pressure looks to migrate into the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
increasing heights and allowing for a hotter airmass to dominate.
The surface boundary looks to deviate southeastwards into the Gulf,
which will confine precipitation chances east of I-55 and south of I-
20 on Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, drier air will begin to filter in
from the northwest. By Saturday into Monday, precipitation will
remain more diurnal in nature as daytime heating becomes more
efficient due to increasing temperatures and decreasing cloud cover.
Weekend temps will range from the middle to upper 90s, while heat
indices climb into the 105-110+ range. Excessive heat products could
be in the works as guidance becomes cohesive over the next several
days. Either way, it will be HOT, so continue to take precautions as
heat related illness will be likely. /AJ/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated -SHRA wl come in vcty of MEI and the southern TAF sites
until after 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and a light wind wl
prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       75  98  77  94 /  10  10  10  50
Meridian      73 101  74  97 /   0  10  10  50
Vicksburg     76  97  77  95 /   0  10  10  40
Hattiesburg   75  99  77  95 /  10  30  10  60
Natchez       75  96  75  94 /  10  20  10  30
Greenville    78 100  79  96 /   0   0  10  50
Greenwood     76 100  77  95 /   0  10  10  50
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025>028-034>036.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.
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&&

$$

22/AJ/22