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363
FXUS64 KJAN 201512
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1012 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

With sfc high pressure ridging across much of the southeast CONUS,
weather conditions will be generally quiet through the afternoon.
Easterly flow will help push a weak shortwave located on the
southern peripheral of the aforementioned sfc high which could
introduce some low rain chances (around 13%) across the I-59
corridor. The higher rain chances will remain along the coast as
Tropical Storm Alberto continues its westward track into Mexico
this morning. Current GOES-16 visible satellite imagery show some
cloud coverage along and west of the I-55 corridor. Expect
afternoon highs to peak into the low 90s across the forecast area.
/CR/
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Today and Tonight: Easterly flow will continue today with ridging
continuing as its center over the mid-atlantic states will be
extended into the mid-MS Valley. The stout ridge will provide a
rather dry airmass aloft mitigating the potential for storm
coverage as chances for showers and storms will remain along the
coast as Tropical Storm Alberto continues its track westward into
Mexico. We can expect to see some high clouds scattered across the
area with more cloud coverage along the western periphery of the
CWA. As easterly flow continues drier air will push moisture out
of the area with PWs falling the less than an inch. High
temperatures will be in the low 90s this afternoon dropping into
the low 70s to high 60s overnight. /KVP/

Friday through Sunday: Stout ridging and a relatively dry airmass
will prevail for the end of this week. Within this regime, high
temps will gradually increase toward the upper 90s to near 100 by
Sunday. While most areas will remain dry, a few showers or an
isolated afternoon storm can`t be ruled out, especially further
south where somewhat greater moisture will exist. By Sunday, low
level flow will begin to shift around to southerly and moisture
return will become more noticeable, with lower 70s dewpoints
becoming more common. This will begin to yield heat indices in the
triple digits in many areas.

Next work week: Mid/upper ridging will begin to break down and
shrink westward, resulting in a more perturbed NW upper flow
pattern. Meanwhile, deep layer moisture will continue to increase
areawide, and mainly diurnal convective coverage will increase
through midweek. Outside of rain, it will remain hot, and given
the increased moisture, heat indices may begin to reach critical
thresholds. We will continue to highlight increased heat stress
concerns in our HWO graphics.

Greater precip coverage will begin to have more of an impact on
high temps by Wednesday-Thursday, and peak heat indices are a bit
more uncertain as a result. There are some indications a cold
front may approach toward the end of the week, potentially
bringing a brief bout of drier air. We`re also continuing to
monitor the tropics, with potential for development in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast US coast. For
now, none of this activity is expected to have a substantial
impact on our weather through the middle of next week. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Expect a light
easterly wind with sustained winds of up to 10mph with brief
gusts of up to 20mph Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      92  69  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     91  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  72  95  71 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       91  70  93  70 /   0   0  10   0
Greenville    93  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     93  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/DL/KP/CR