-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
230
FXUS63 KJKL 181804
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
204 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional shower (and possible thunderstorm) chances will
  occur through Thursday.

- A warming trend will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal over the upcoming weekend.

- Active weather returns for the 1st half of next week, with
  showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Updated the grids just before 10am to make sure the near term
grids were on track with the current conditions. This only
resulted in some minor changes to the ongoing forecast so far.
There was also some pops included in the far northeast of the CWA
which weren`t materializing on radar, so went ahead and removed
them. Also made some minor changes to the pops over the next few
hours based on the latest CAMS, blending back into the forecast
for later this afternoon and evening as scattered pops cover a
large portion of the eastern and central CWA. This also resulted
in updates to the weather grids. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of zones and SAFs were also sent
out to remove any morning fog wording, and also update the changes
to the pop/weather in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Current surface analysis has the forecast area being impacted by a
weak surface low that`s been slowly riding up the eastern seaboard.
Low-level moisture, attributed to this system, has caused a stratus
deck to develop along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Areas
north are seeing mostly clear skies. Temperatures overnight have
fallen into the low to mid-60s.

The aforementioned surface low and upper-level shortwave will
continue to impact the area today through the remainder of the
forecast period as it very slowly lifts northeastward out of the
area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop this afternoon. Forecast soundings for this afternoon
indicate that decent instability will be in place with pretty solid
PWs. However, not expecting anything in the way of severe weather as
shear is largely lacking across the area. High temperatures are
expected to climb into the upper-70s to low 80s. Showers and storms
will taper off toward sunset with mostly clear skies anticipated
overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Thursday brings another chance albeit small chance of showers and
thunderstorms; mainly for areas along and east of the Mountain
Parkway as the system, that`s been impacting the region, finally
begins to eject out of the region. Forecast soundings continue to
favor thunderstorm development but once again, the lack of shear
will prevent any storm from really gaining strength. Highs for
Thursday will climb into the low to mid-80s as surface high pressure
nudges in from the southwest.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with increasing temperatures. Daytime highs will begin
to climb toward the mid-80s by Thursday with overnight lows holding
steady in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas,
supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a
longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the
eastern seaboard. As far as sensible weather for eastern Kentucky,
any lingering showers should be tapering off heading into the
evening, with fog developing overnight heading into Friday. Lows
should generally be in the 50s.

Friday through Sunday, expect the eastern trough to progress further
north and east and for the subtropical ridge to slightly strengthen.
With increasing heights aloft, daytime high temperatures are expected
to run 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Expect
mostly sunny skies for Friday, with some clouds showing up Saturday
and Sunday. Lows will generally remain in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Next week, active weather returns to eastern Kentucky, with model
guidance showing an upper level low ejecting out of the
intermountain west into the Plains, while the subtropical high over
Texas begins to shift eastward. Some showers and thunderstorms look
to spill over the ridge into the area during the afternoon Monday,
with on and off storms continuing through Wednesday. Highs  Monday
are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to low 80s with the added
cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Lows will generally be in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

A strong low pressure system located east of the state will
continue to impact the region through the next 24 hours. A
scattered to broken low CU deck is in place across all the TAF
sites, generally MVFR to low end VFR (1500 - 3500 ft). These will
persist through the rest of the day, and could also lead to some
isolated to scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm during
the rest of the afternoon hours, mainly across KJKL and KSJS.
Didn`t include any reductions to VIS or CIGs with this VCTS as the
exact set up and impacts are still unknown. Will continue to
monitor through the afternoon in case updates need to be made
based on SH and TS materializing.

Then as we head into tonight, what little wind there was today
will quickly dissipate, along with the clouds and precip
potential. Models are all continuing to suggest enough moisture
and cooling across the region to lead to fog across eastern KY,
including the TAF sites. Still expecting most sites to beginning
dropping in VIS after 6Z, reaching IFR or even LIFR status by the
wee hours of the morning. These values may need to be adjusted a
bit as the fog begins to form and we see the whites of it`s eyes,
but do plan on some widespread impacts. This fog will begin
lifting by daybreak, giving way to mostly clear skies and another
round of (this time VFR) diurnal CU during the daytime hours
tomorrow/Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JMW