-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
797
FXUS62 KKEY 160252
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1052 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave ridge sliding east
through the Great Lakes. The long wave trough formerly sagging
into the Gulf of Mexico is progressing east into the western North
Atlantic. CIMSS mid to upper level vorticity analyses suggest
there is node a cyclonic curvature over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico that pinched off from the trough formerly in the Gulf. The
Central American Gyre continues to thrive underneath a broad
anticyclone centered over the Western Caribbean.

After nearly a week of convectively active evenings in the
Florida Keys, the KBYX radar is echo free. There remains a few
sheaths of light stratiform rain, although additional
accumulations are not expected. The gradient between high pressure
bulging southeast out of the Eastern Seaboard and the falling
pressure in the Bay of Campeche will result in freshening breezes
across the Florida Keys over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical: the last available visibile satellite images noted two
cyclonic swirls over the western North Atlantic, one near 30N/70W
and the other north of the Dominican Republic. MIMIC TPW loops
also reveal these two swirls. These two features will merge over
the next few days then get caught up underneath the building high
pressure system. Within the past 24 hours, the model consensus has
locked onto this feature with rather strong agreement. At 800 PM,
the NHC introduced this system into the Seven-Day TWO,
highlighting a 20% chance for development over the next five days.
If a threat develops with this system the steering flow should
drive the circulation west towards central or northern Florida and
north of the Keys. We will continue to monitor.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution due to freshening easterly
breezes. Small Craft Advisory may be required Sunday for portions
of the coastal waters of the Florida Keys as winds increase to
near 20 knots. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes this
evening will gradually increase over the next couple of days due
to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures
near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
breezes will continue through mid week with winds tending stronger
especially across our southwestern and western waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
VFR and gusty east to southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW
and MTH terminals overnight. The very light streaks of stratiform
rain should erode shortly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key West  81  88  82  89 /  20  30  20  20
Marathon  81  88  82  90 /  20  20  20  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest