-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
695
FXUS62 KKEY 150247
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1047 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis in
the Gulf of Mexico. The node in the base of the axis appears to be
retrograding west, while the axis in the northeastern Gulf is
sliding southeast. The late afternoon visibile satellite imagery
placed a surface trough from near the Yucatan, northeast to near
Florida. There were multiple MCVs noted along the trough axis.
The Florida Keys are in the diffluent low-level flow between the
cyclonic curvature near the Yucatan and the ridge to our
east. Post rain stabilization and the diffluent flow have resulted
in a nearly echo free KBYX radar. There are indications from the
global models that the mid to upper trough axis may result in some
falling heights overnight in the southeastern Gulf and the Keys.
Combined with the developing southeasterly flow, it is hard to to
lower than 50% rain/ thunder chances. The forecast is on track and
needs no adjustments.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Breezes will diminish on Saturday, followed by
diminished rain and thunder chances Sunday night and Monday.
Meanwhile, breezes will freshen Sunday night through Monday
night as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States
and the extreme western North Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes
will continue through Wednesday night as low pressure slides west
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
The KBYX radar is nearly echo free and the TAFs at the EYW and MTH
terminals advertise VFR for the overnight period. As the east-
southeasterlies develop Saturday afternoon, island cloud lines and
low-level moisture convergence may introduce chances for
thunderstorms at both terminals. This scenario is not included in
the current TAFs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  86  81  87 /  50  40  20  20
Marathon  79  87  81  87 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....11

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