-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
903
FXUS63 KLBF 201739
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across
  northern Nebraska this afternoon and again on Friday. The
  primary severe weather concerns will be large hail and
  damaging winds.

- In addition to the potential for severe thunderstorms,
  locally heavy rainfall will also be possible today and
  tomorrow, prompting a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  across portions of northern and north central Nebraska.

- A return to a hotter and drier pattern is expected to return
  Sunday and early next week as upper level ridging returns.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery continue to place an upper
level trough over the western United States, with western and north
central Nebraska under the eastern extent of the trough.  At the
surface, a low pressure center is located over central Illinois,
with a stationary front extending through Missouri and southern
Kansas. The stationary front intersects an area of low pressure over
south central Kansas and continues on to another low over southeast
Colorado. Overnight satellite imagery shows a dense cloud shield
across northeast Colorado, Nebraska, most of South Dakota into
central Minnesota. A few rain showers are detected on radar across
the Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska and south
central South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Throughout the day, the current stationary front over southern
Kansas is expected to begin traveling northward as a warm front.
This may provide a focus for potential thunderstorm activity later
this afternoon into the evening. Dew Point temperatures in the 60s
across Nebraska will be aided by an 850 mb jet setting up across
Kansas into South Dakota. Current CAM guidance suggests storms will
initiate over eastern Wyoming into the western Nebraska Panhandle.
The forecast CAPE and shear will initially be supportive of
supercell thunderstorms developing in eastern Wyoming and the
western Panhandle, with large hail as the primary concern as storms
begin. As storms move into the eastern Panhandle, a transition to
linear convection is expected, as storms encounter lower shear and
begin interaction with more stable air. As the storms transition to
a more linear mode, winds become the primary concern. With the
threat of severe weather in play tonight, the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across the Nebraska
Panhandle into portions or northwest and north central Nebraska
tonight.

Another severe weather pattern sets up late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued another
Slight Risk for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening for
northern Nebraska. The set up remains quite similar to today`s set
up, though the main body of the Slight Risk is further north over
South Dakota. Again, Dew Points in the 60s will be expected over
most of Nebraska, with another low level jet setting up. Storms are
generally expected to form over eastern Wyoming and track to the
east and northeast. Ample CAPE and shear will be supportive of
supercell thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

On top of the severe weather threat, with the ample moisture
available, storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.
The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall over portions of north central Nebraska today and tomorrow.
Expected Precipitable Water values both nights are around 1.5
inches, which would exceed the 90th percentile for both days.
Current WPC guidance places widespread amounts of precipitation
greater than 1 inch across most areas north of Highway 2, with some
areas exceeding 2 inches through Saturday morning. With the nature
of the rain expected to be thunderstorms, there is the possibility
that local amounts could be higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

By Saturday, the upper level ridge to the east begins to retrograde
while the trough to the west begins to lift. This will begin to
establish a a regime of upper level ridging across most of the
central United States. Both cluster analysis and spaghetti plots are
in general agreement on the ridging establishing over western and
north central Nebraska on Sunday and remaining through at least mid
week. As ridging settles in, a return to above seasonal temperatures
can be expected. Temperatures will begin trending upwards, with this
weekend generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and early week
temperatures widespread in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Cloud heights will lifts this afternoon with mainly VFR
conditions except across the far north where MVFR conditions
will be seen to include portions of the north central.
Convection will redevelop in the west this evening with a line
of showers and thunderstorms to move east around 35 mph. Short
term models are consistent in the line forming although eventual
radar will be telling with the main area of convection to focus
generally north of Interstate 80 this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Keck