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249
FXUS63 KLBF 190809
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- High temperatures this afternoon will be around 10 to 20
  degrees below seasonal average, as temperatures remain on the
  cool side from yesterday`s cold frontal passage.

- An active pattern keeps chances of showers and thunderstorms
  through the end of the week. At this time, the severe
  potential remains uncertain.

- A return to a hotter and drier pattern is expected early next
  week as upper level ridging returns.
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&&

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery place an upper level
trough over the western United States, with western and north
central Nebraska under the eastern extent of the trough. At the
surface, a low pressure center is situated near the Nebraska-
Iowa-Missouri border. A stationary front extends to the
southwest across north central Kansas, where a secondary surface
low is observed, with a stationary front extending to the
southwest across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Along the stationary
front, a large stratus deck is observed on satellite, with
thunderstorms on the southern side of the front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The region is currently sitting on the cool side of the stationary
front across eastern Nebraska into north central Kansas. Widespread
cloud cover is observed on satellite early this morning, and is
expected to remain throughout the day. Given the placement of the
stationary front and the cloud cover, temperatures will remain well
below seasonal average this afternoon, about 10 to 20 degrees below
average as temperatures are expected to be in the 60s.

Along with the cool temperatures, chances of showers and
thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Current guidance
suggests the timing of showers and storms begins late this afternoon
across portions of southwest Nebraska, with storms moving off to the
northeast throughout the evening. With the cool weather and
relatively stable environment, no severe weather is expected.
However, the environment is primed to produce relatively efficient
rainfall, with the highest probability of locally heavy rainfall
across the Sandhills and in portions of north central Nebraska east
of Highway 83. As the late afternoon and early evening showers move
out of the region, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and track northeast overnight through early tomorrow
afternoon. Rain amounts across the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska are expected to be around one half inch to one inch of
precipitation, but given the expected thunderstorms, some local
amounts could be higher.

Throughout the day Thursday, lighter rain showers are expected to
persist across most of the region. Thursday evening, a line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop across the Panhandle and track
to the east and northeast, bringing another round of rain across the
Sandhills and portions of northwest Nebraska. At this time, the
severe weather potential is uncertain. While CAM guidance show CAPE
and shear supportive of organized convection, it also keeps a fairly
strong cap across the region, with forecast soundings more
supportive of elevated convection. In fact, guidance is suggesting
thunderstorm development in areas where cooler surface temperatures
are expected throughout the day, which may help limit convection.
Still, it will be worth keeping an eye on forecast trends for
Thursday afternoon and evening as models can better resolve the
environment.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A fairly active upper level pattern will keep precipitation chances
around Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The upper level
trough is expected to have a few shortwaves moving through, which
may provide a catalyst for continued rain showers during this
period. Temperatures begin to climb back into the 80s, with chances
for temperatures in the 90s across southwest Nebraska. On Saturday,
the trough is expected to begin lifting, setting the stage for upper
level ridging to build over the region Sunday afternoon.

As upper level ridging begins to build back in, a return to a hotter
and drier pattern is expected. Cluster analysis is in fairly strong
agreement on the ridging building in across the central United
States, building confidence in a return to this pattern.
Temperatures are expected to climb back above seasonal averages,
with temperatures returning to the 90s early next week.  All of this
thinking is further reflected by the Climate Prediction Center,
which is expecting temperatures to be above average next week across
western and north central Nebraska.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Expect VFR conditions through the first half of the valid period
though expect an accelerating downward trend this afternoon
through the end of the valid period. There may be some light
showers around but will not include in the TAFs and will
introduce precipitation late this afternoon when probabilities
become higher and expect showers/thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and spread up from the south after 00Z. KLBF looks to
sink to IFR toward the end of the valid period but expect MVFR
to hold through the latter portion of the valid period at KVTN.

There may be a few northerly gusts early especially at KVTN but
overall expect winds will veer from northeast to easterly and
generally remain 10kt or less, though expect there will be a few
gusts at onset of precipitation.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...MBS