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181
FXUS64 KLIX 220826
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A strong 596 DAM H5 ridge stretches from the Tennessee River
Valley westward to the TX Panhandle this morning. This is helping
keep the upper levels very dry with plenty of subsidence taking
place across our CWFA. That said, precip chances remain low
through much of the short term period with perhaps a nonzero
chance for a shower or two during the diurnal season. At the
surface, high pressure will be in control and should continue to
limit surface winds across the region. With higher heights and
thicknesses, expect above average temperatures with most locations
climbing into the middle and upper 90s with heat index values
warming into the lower to mid 100s or just shy of heat advisory
thresholds. (Frye)
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The hot and dry regime from the short term period will continue
into the long term period to start the new workweek. The mid level
high along with the surface high will remain locked into the
region. Eventually, eyes begin to shift upstream closer the lower
appalachians by Tuesday and into Wednesday. A weak front will
move southward and near our region by Tuesday. This weak feature
should stall and wash out. However, better low level moisture will
be moving into the region from the south. The interaction between
this weak front and daily lake/sea breeze etc may help bring an
increase to shower and storm activity basically from Tuesday
onward. Eventually, as the week progresses the surface high will
continue to spread eastward again allowing for a rich return flow
to set up. Another weak front moves southward toward our region by
the end of the forecast period. Once again, this should interact
with local lake and sea breezes allowing for a bit higher rain
chances...again as we go from midweek to late week.

As for temperatures, conditions will remain hot. The strong H5
heat bubble will remain mostly over the region through midweek or
so. Prior to heights/thicknesses lowering by late Wednesday and
Thursday, temperatures should warm well into the 90s with some
locations not far from the 100F threshold. That said, heat
advisory conditions should be met, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday despite the slight increase in rain chances. Think most
of the precip would occur late in the day after the warmest part
is realized. Temperatures lower a degree or two toward the end of
the forecast period as heights and thicknesses decrease. (Frye)
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions across all terminals currently and this should
continue through the forecast period as high pressure pushes into
the area. High pressure overhead likely will keep convection
suppressed. Winds out of the southeast tomorrow will remain light.
(HL)
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Mostly favorable marine conditions expected through the weekend
and through the period. High pressure will continue to build into
the region, which will limit surface winds and finally redirect
the low level fetch from the western Caribbean. Outside of modest
increasing in winds and seas in and around diurnally driven
convection, again overall quiet for now. (Frye)
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  93  71  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  97  76  98  78 /   0   0  10   0w
ASD  94  73  96  76 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  93  77  94  78 /   0   0  20   0
GPT  93  75  93  77 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  96  73  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...RDF