-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
390
FXUS64 KLIX 220054
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
754 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Impressively strong upper level ridge centered around TN encompasses
nearly 2/3`s of the country. Looking at water vapor imagery, it`s
hard to believe how high PW was on this morning`s local sounding
(1.8"). Closer inspection shows the depth of higher moisture is how
that 1.8" occurred with a low dewpoint depression all the way up to
around 600mb. The ridge has been and will continue to drive drier
air into the region as the afternoon and evening progresses.
Isolated to scattered shallow showers have been able to develop this
afternoon over southern portions of the CWA within a pocket of
moisture ahead of approaching drier air. No appreciable impacts
expected with this activity.

Models show the center of the broad ridge to be just north of the
CWA midday Saturday. Strong subsidence along with PW`s down to 1.5"
or less, should not see much of any rainfall activity. A stray
shower or 2 not impossible but not enough to justify any mention of
POPs in the forecast. On the temp side, increasing heights means
increasing temps. Went about the consistently low biased NBM for
New Orleans metro (really for the entire forecast period). Much of
that region will likely not see less than 80 degree lows for awhile.
Then, for CWA daytime highs, mid 90s expected areawide.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Medium range models initially in decent agreement as we head through
the weekend and then begin to has some disagreements in the details.
That said the differences are subtle and overall suggest expect the
warmer muggy conditions to return with scattered afternoon
convection. NBM is on the warmer side compared to the MOS numbers
but is very close and given the possible setup not confident enough
drop temps from the NBM. One change was to increase the morning lows
at the typical warm spots this weekend around the lake. Will day
though that ECMWF is on the warmer side of guidance as well.

Rainfall potential remains on the low side Sunday, a bit lower than
previous forecast with the best chance for any afternoon storms as
there may be a slightly better chance of the seabreeze getting north
of I-12 east of I-55 with slightly stronger southerly winds and up
to h925. That said pops will still be right around 20% for some of
the local area and with h925 temps hovering around 25-26C highs will
likely range from the lower 90s in southwest MS to mid/upper 90s
most other locations. Heat index values is the other concern going
into Sunday. As moisture increased in the lower levels, there is a
chance that the heat index values could jump 108 range. An isolated
108 value could be reached. At the moment, not confident enough for
widespread Heat Advisory conditions, but may need to consider one
for urban areas. Will say though, Monday and Tuesday does appear to
be around the same for daytime highs but with higher dewpoints. So
wouldn`t be surprised if a Heat Advisory is needed then.

Early next week as the ridge continues to strengthen over the 4
corners with the ridge axis extending north into Canada the eastern
periphery will start to tighten up and could place the region back
under northwest to northerly flow. This would begin to favor
convection once again but likely occurring very late in the day.
This would probably play into the decision of whether to issue a
heat advisory or not.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions prevailing areawide with only FEW to SCT cu noted
on satellite imagery expanding outward with the lakebreeze. Should
see VFR conditions prevail through the period with high pressure
overhead suppressing cu and SH/TS development tomorrow. Winds
will be easterly to southeasterly through the day with lake/sea
breeze influence in the afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Strong easterly winds are and continue to slowly relax as the
tightened pressure gradient created by Alberto weakens. It`s not as
fast, however, as it`d typically be as yet another broad area of low
pressure tries to develop in the Bay of Campeche. By Sunday, that
system shifts west while high pressure builds aloft. This will
breakdown the local area wind field and seas will subside. Expect
non-impactful marine conditions until typical summertime nocturnal
onshore flow increases resume Monday into Tuesday.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  74  98  76  97 /  10  10   0  20
ASD  72  95  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
MSY  80  94  80  94 /  10  10   0  20
GPT  72  93  76  93 /  10   0   0  10
PQL  70  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME