-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
210
FXUS64 KLIX 230435
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1135 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Isolated afternoon and evening SHRA have dissipated. Airmass
remains on the dry side of the daily mean, and that doesn`t look
to change until mid-week. No update needed to forecast content,
just overnight temporal wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to
build over the area. As a result, expect dry conditions overall
with an isolated chance of a shower daily during peak daytime
heating hours. In addition to being dry, it will be slightly
warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the mid
90s and heat index values around the low 100s through Tuesday. So,
make sure to stay hydrated over the next couple of days. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

There is a lot of model uncertainty as we head toward mid-week.
NHC has a 70% chance (high) of development for a disturbance in
the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. Looking at
the models, generally this system would be potentially developing
in the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. At the same timeline, a
frontal system will be moving through the Southeastern US and
through the Gulf. Depending on how this frontal system ends up
playing out timing-wise will have a big influence on what happens
with any potential tropical development. Regardless, models are
going to be extremely unreliable until a system forms, if one does
form. It is too soon still to say any details or specifics about
timing, location, magnitude, etc. as a result. We emphasize to the
public to keep following trusted sources and NHC/NWS forecasts as
we head into the workweek and make sure to have a plan in place,
as always. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions across all forecast terminals at 0000CDT (05z). If
there are going to be any impacts in the first 12 hours of the
forecast, it`d be a few patches of fog, but that`s not expected to
be widespread. If there are going to be favored terminals for
that, it`d be KMCB, KHUM and perhaps KBTR and KHDC. Will only
carry a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities at the first two.

As we`ve seen for the last several days, there is a non zero
threat of SHRA during the afternoon hours on Monday, but areal
coverage is expected to be way below the threshold to mention in
the forecast this far out.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Benign marine conditions expected through Wednesday. Winds will
be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts). Starting
Wednesday, winds increase to 15-25kts and easterly to
northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast is still
highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential for
tropical development. The hurricane center has an area outlooked
at 70% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the
central/eastern Gulf. Remain updated with future forecasts
concerning this area over the next several days. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  91  69  89 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  72  94  73  94 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  71  91  71  90 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  75  90  74  90 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  72  90  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  72  95  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...MSW