Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --696 FXUS64 KLIX 221827 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 127 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to build over the area. As a result, expect dry conditions overall with an isolated chance of a shower daily during peak daytime heating hours. In addition to being dry, it will be slightly warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values around the low 100s through Tuesday. So, make sure to stay hydrated over the next couple of days. MSW-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 There is a lot of model uncertainty as we head toward mid-week. NHC has a 70% chance (high) of development for a disturbance in the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. Looking at the models, generally this system would be potentially developing in the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. At the same timeline, a frontal system will be moving through the Southeastern US and through the Gulf. Depending on how this frontal system ends up playing out timing-wise will have a big influence on what happens with any potential tropical development. Regardless, models are going to be extremely unreliable until a system forms, if one does form. It is too soon still to say any details or specifics about timing, location, magnitude, etc. as a result. We emphasize to the public to keep following trusted sources and NHC/NWS forecasts as we head into the workweek and make sure to have a plan in place, as always. MSW-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Benign marine conditions expected through Wednesday. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts). Starting Wednesday, winds increase to 15-25kts and easterly to northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast is still highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential for tropical development. The hurricane center has an area outlooked at 70% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the central/eastern Gulf. Remain updated with future forecasts concerning this area over the next several days. MSW-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --MCB 70 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 72 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 71 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 75 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 72 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 72 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 10-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW