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265
FXUS64 KLIX 240847
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The main story today will be the heat. Upper level ridging will
continue to spread eastward along the Gulf Coast today. Low level
moisture will be on the increase today as well, which coupled with
the hot afternoon temperatures will lead to heat index values to
climb into the 108-110F range outside of the immediate Louisiana
Coast. That said, there could be some late afternoon relief in the
from of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, however,
subsidence should keep most of this activity low-topped and
rather low in coverage. Outside of the heat advisory for much of
the region, wanted to focus on another Coastal Flood Advisory for
coastal Hancock Co., MS. Water levels followed closer to the
P-ETTS guidance yesterday and today should be roughly about the
same, so around high tide expect some minor water rises in those
known low-lying coastal trouble spots respectively.

Tonight, if we do get a little rain, some shallow ground fog may
be possible, but given the low coverage didn`t add to the forecast
now. Outside of the rain and wet grounds, there could be some
moisture pooling along a weak surface boundary that will move in
and stall across the region later this evening before it begins to
dissipate. As it fades to a remnant trough on Tuesday, it will be
just enough to interact with the diurnal cycle to help generate a
few more isolated to scattered showers/storms on Tuesday as well.
Similarly, coverage will be on the limited side. Otherwise, we`ll
likely need another heat advisory on Tuesday as temps will reach
thresholds likely before any convection can develop. (Frye)
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

On Wednesday, more numerous showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated as another surface boundary and parent upper level
trough begins to slide southward on the eastern periphery of the
upper level ridge across the Southwest U.S. This will likely help
keep the heat in check slightly (it will still be hot, but largely not
advisory hot). This weak surface boundary does stall across the
Gulf Coast region and with a series of upper level impulses
likely to interact with peak daytime heating as well as mesoscale
boundaries (outflow or lake/sea Breeze). So, continued mid to
higher-end POPs from this point through the end of the workweek.

Going into the upcoming weekend, the upper level ridge spreads
east again, which signals more heat for the southeast. Our region
will be in easterly flow aloft with a few inverted upper
shortwaves moving overhead. Carried POPs naturally to account for
this, but the question is how soon can convection develop and will
it impact day time highs and max heat index values? We will
continue to monitor this through the week in case there may be a
need for additional heat advisories later in the forecast period.
(Frye)
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals right now and this likely
continues through the forecast period. High pressure continues to
keep winds light and variable through the period. Isolated
convection can`t be ruled out Monday afternoon, but not enough
confidence to include it in the TAFs. (HL)
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Surface winds should remain southerly and be mostly light to
moderate leading to mostly benign marine conditions through the
period. A front will move toward the region early to mid week and
perhaps another late in the week, which will help keep the
pressure gradient on the lower side (outside diurnal upticks in
wind across the MS Sound). Otherwise, convection will be possible
especially during the overnight, which could locally increase
winds and seas. (Frye)
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  93  74  95  74 /  40  20  50  20
BTR  98  78  98  77 /  40  20  50  10
ASD  96  77  95  77 /  50  30  50  10
MSY  95  79  94  79 /  30  30  50  10
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  97  77  98  77 /  40  20  30  20
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&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ086.

GM...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...RDF