-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
824
FXUS64 KLIX 210245
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
945 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Isolated convection earlier this evening over extreme lower
portions of southeast Louisiana coastal parishes has dissipated.
Updated ZFP to remove the afternoon portion of the the forecast
and remove temporal wording from the overnight period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

All is quiet for the short term period as upper level ridging
continue to build into the area from the west. This has kept
little to no convection from forming today, outside of a few
showers offshore. This will continue tomorrow with PoPs ~0% as the
ridge moves further overhead.

On the other side of things, the ridge continuing to build in
also helps temperatures rise just a bit. Adjusted tomorrow`s
MaxT`s using a blend of the 50th and 75th percentile to get them
closer to guidance. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be
in the low to mid 90s for all. HRL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

At the beginning of the extended period we will be under upper level
ridging anchored to our west.  As the week progresses the high
pressure stays in place but blends with the Bahama high.  The result
of this setup is dry, warm weather.  By mid-week, we see a trough
moving off the Rockies and as it moves eastward provides a path for
Gulf moisture to move into the area bringing PoPs up into
general/typical summertime ranges of 20-30% through the end of the
period. Temperatures will also drop slightly as the week
progresses.

/Schlotz/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions across all terminals and should probably remain
that way through the forecast period. Convection across lower
Terrebonne Parish is well south of KHUM and moving out into the
Gulf of Mexico. No indications of lightning even with that.
Limited threat of flight restrictions around sunrise, too low to
mention in forecast. Not much change in forecast scenario for
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Winds hold calm through early tomorrow, then we will see a more
steady easterly flow setup around ~10-15kts. This will bring an
increase in seas, ~2-3ft, through the later part of the weekend
and into early next week. These conditions will stick around for
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  90  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  72  91  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...HL