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629
FXUS66 KLOX 031539
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
839 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/356 AM.

Near normal weather conditions are anticipated through this
weekend with continued night to morning low clouds and fog near
the coast. The first significant widespread heatwave of the
summer is favored for mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/325 AM.

Mild weather with a very slight warming trend each day is
expected through the weekend. Continued warm temperatures are
forecast for inland areas, with cooler conditions near the
coasts. Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s near the coast,
80s coastal valleys and 90s lower mountains to the interior.
Temperatures will generally be just below normal for much of the
region, and within a couple degrees of normal across the LA Basin.
Overnight to morning marine layer clouds and fog will continue
each day extending from the beaches into the coastal valleys.
Areas of dense fog will be possible by the weekend

Far interior areas will continue to be dry during the day with
breezy onshore winds during the afternoons and evenings, as is
typical for this time of year. Additionally northerly Sundowner
winds are likely to return to southwest Santa Barbara County this
Friday night and persist through at least the weekend. Gusts of 25
to 45 mph will be common across the typically windy areas, with
chances for local gusts of 50 mph. These downsloping winds may
result in areas of fire weather concerns for the Santa Ynez Range
and portion of the adjacent coast.

The Madre Fire is currently burning in southeast San Luis Obispo
County and creating a significant amount of smoke for the Cuyama
Valley. Upper level smoke is currently drifting far south from its
origin over Santa Barbara County and western portions of Ventura
County. Smokey skies may be visible from portions of LA County
today, though it is likely to stay elevated well above the
surface.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/356 AM.

For mid-to-late next week confidence in above normal temperatures
is quite high, as mostly all models favor a strong ridge of high
pressure building for the region. There remains some uncertainty
in the severity of this upcoming heat event however. Tuesday
temperatures are likely to bump upwards, with much of LA County
reaching several degrees above normal. Heat is then likely to
build over the region, peaking Wednesday or Thursday, with the
potential to last into next weekend. Triple digit heat (100
degrees or greater) is favored for interior valleys and deserts,
with a small chance for the warmest areas to reach or exceed 110
degrees. Heat Advisories are likely to be issued for warmest
valleys, with around a 20 percent chance of Extreme Heat
Watch/Warnings becoming necessary for some valleys, mountains,
and/or deserts. Hazardous heat impacts are possible for all areas,
except perhaps the immediate coasts, where marine layer clouds
will play a great role in the temperature. Anyone working
outdoors, living without air conditioning, or belonging to groups
sensitive to heat, are advised to stay up to date with the
forecast and prepare for an extended period of above normal
temperatures.

There is a chance for monsoonal mositure to reach the region next
week, with around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms focused
across the mountains and deserts as early as Tuesday for Los
Angeles/Ventura Counties, extending across the remaining interior
areas Wednesday into late next week. Dry lightning fire starts,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rain are potential monsoon
thunderstorm hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1135Z.

At 1122Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 5200 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB through 17Z. There is a 40% chance
VFR conds prevail. High confidence thereafter.

Moderate to high confidence in remaining TAFs. Dissipation of cigs
may be off by 2 hours, and coastal sites south of Point Conception
may not clear today. There is a 40% chance KOXR clears after 20Z,
but cigs may vary from SCT to BKN through the afternoon. Lower
confidence in minimum flight cat tonight, thus flight cats may be
off by one cat. Arrival of cigs may be off by 3 hours. There is a
30% chance of no low clouds tonight at KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of dissipation of cigs
may be off by 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for BKN015-025
cigs to continue through the afternoon and don`t clear. Arrival
of cigs may be off by 3 hours and lower confidence on minimum
cig height (+/- 300 ft). Moderate confidence in any east wind
component remaining below 8 kts through 18Z. Higher confidence in
east wind component below 6 kts tonight.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of no
low clouds forming tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
03/838 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer
Waters much of the time through the 4th of July Weekend. SCA
winds are also likely each afternoon and evening for the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast Friday through the weekend, with
local wind gusts to 25 kt across far northern portions of PZZ645
this evening. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible through
Sunday, with best chances around the western Channel Islands and
in the northern Outer Waters Friday afternoon and evening (30%
chance). Seas will build to 8 to 10 feet at times through the
weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate
(30-40%) chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening
Friday through the weekend across the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts to 20 kts may occur near Point
Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned
time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox