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712
FXUS61 KLWX 241317
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
917 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will briefly traverse the area through Tuesday.
The next cold front will cross the area late Wednesday into
Thursday. High pressure will pass to the north Friday, then
another frontal system will approach over the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of mid morning, a cold front was dropping southeastward away
from the region. Northwesterly winds were increasing, with
gusts of 20-30 mph expected today. Remaining clouds will clear,
with a few to scattered cumulus. High temperatures will return
closer to normal in the mid 80s to near 90. However, humidity
levels will plummet, with dew points in the lower to middle 50s
by mid/late afternoon.

That dry airmass will lead to a relatively cool night as high
pressure builds in from the west and winds abate. The urban
centers and bayshore may stay close to 70, but interior
locations will drop to the mid 50s to mid 60s. Some of the high
elevation valleys could fall into the 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will translate through on Tuesday and move to
the southeast Tuesday night. Comfortable dew points in the mid
to upper 50s remain through the day, although temperatures will
rebound a little to the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light
southerly flow and potential clouds will result in warmer
conditions Tuesday night. Dry conditions are most likely,
although some guidance shows the potential for a few showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night across northwestern parts of the CWA
on the leading edge of theta-e advection.

With the low level ridge to the southeast Wednesday,
southwesterly flow will advect heat and humidity back into the
area. A series of troughs and a cold front will also be
approaching from the northwest. Early day clouds and even
remnant showers are not out of the question, which could inhibit
temperatures somewhat. However, the potential is still there for
highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values around
100-105. With the building instability and approaching forcing,
a thunderstorm threat will eventually develop, although details
are still fuzzy at this range. Current timing favors a later
afternoon to evening peak. Increased flow with the incoming
trough will support a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
The cold front looks like it will push through late Wednesday
night, which would diminish rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As a cold front exits early Thursday, some shower activity could
linger into Thursday morning. Temperatures lower behind the cold
front Thursday into the 80s to low 90s, but dewpoints look to remain
in the low-mid 60s during the day, dropping into the 50s overnight
with lows temps in the 50s to near 70 along the waters.

A quick-moving area of high pressure passes to our north on Friday.
Mostly dry conditions are expected, but a few showers can`t be ruled
out around the Shenandoah Valley/Virginia Piedmont as the center of
high pressure swiftly moves offshore by the evening and minor
perturbations pass by aloft. Temperatures look relatively cooler,
topping out in the upper 80s. Lows hover in the 60s.

Confidence has increased for the potential of warm frontal precip on
Saturday, focused in the afternoon and evening. The cold front
associated with the approaching system looks to arrive Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Winds have shifted to the northwest. Gusts of 20-30 kt will be
likely through the afternoon before abating this evening.

No significant weather expected tonight through Tuesday night as
high pressure moves across the area. Thunderstorm chances
increase Wednesday into Wednesday evening, perhaps in multiple
rounds, as the next system approaches the area. Southwesterly
winds may also gust to 20 kt Wednesday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. Mostly
dry conditions are expected as high pressure passes to the north,
but a few showers/t-storms can`t be ruled out Thursday AM and Friday
PM. NW flow Thursday turns SW on Friday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters today. Gusts
of 20-25 kt are likely, with a few gusts to 30 kt not out of
the question. Winds gradually subside tonight, with advisories
continuing along the bay until 2 AM.

High pressure builds across the area Tuesday, with light west
winds becoming southerly by Tuesday night. An SCA may be needed
for the bay Tuesday night due to southerly channeling. SCA
conditions may expand to all waters Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as southwesterly flow increases. There will also be an
increasing threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the next frontal system approaches.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure
passes to our north. A frontal system arrives over the weekend.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies decrease today through Tuesday with NW flow. A
few sensitive sites may approach or exceed Action stage today,
but no flooding is expected at this time. A return of southwest
winds Wednesday will bring another increase in water levels,
although no flooding is forecast at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Very hot temperatures are expected on Wednesday. Several
records could be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high
temperatures for June 26th, the year the record was set, and
the current forecast high temperatures for that day. A plus sign
after the date signifies the record was set multiple times,
with the most recent year indicated below. RERs are only issued
for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for
reference.

                                    Wednesday Jun 26th
Washington-National (DCA)    101F (1952)          97F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       95F (1998)          96F
Baltimore (BWI)               99F (1954+)         97F
Martinsburg (MRB)            102F (1943)          94F
Charlottesville (CHO)         99F (1998)          96F
Annapolis (NAK)               98F (1952)          92F
Hagerstown (HGR)              98F (1954+)         93F
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536-542.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CAS
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
CLIMATE...LWX