-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
789
FXUS64 KLZK 242329
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

This morning it looked as if our afternoon heat index values were
going to exceed 110 in a number of areas, so we upgraded portions of
the heat advisory to an excessive heat warning.

The upper level ridge across the area continues to retrograde toward
the swrn US. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area
again tomorrow. We have an existing heat advisory in effect thru
late tomorrow, and at the moment it doesn`t look like heat
indices will be hot enough to warrant another excessive heat
advisory...although we will have to take a close look at the
anticipated afternoon conditions tomorrow morning.

Some changes are on the way. As the ridge continues to retrograde
over the southwestern US, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop
across the area, and a surface cold front will start to push into
the area Wednesday. The cold front isn`t actually `cold` per se, but
will bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the
reason...emphasis on `slight`. However, it should be enough to kick
of some showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, with
POPs across the area in the 40-60 pct range on Wednesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Once again, hot temperatures will headline the long term fcst into
the new month.

Mean H500 ridging wl remain in place over the Cont Divide thru the
end of the week, before upper flow transitions to bcmg more zonal
acrs the CONUS. Initially, the primary upper level high and asctd
greater anomalous H500 heights wl remain displaced to the west of
the FA, centered over the Desert S/W regions, w/ regionally hot and
humid condns persisting locally.

Some relief fm the heat is expected again on Thurs, after rain and a
weak cdfrnt passage on Wed, w/ area temps topping out in the upper
80s to low 90s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR, respectively.

Fri thru Sat, temps wl be on the rise again to the mid to upper 90s,
w/ the upper closed high shifting E/wrd fm the Desert S/W, and
centering over the Srn Cntrl US. Stronger perturbed upper flow acrs
the Nrn US is expected to recede towards the US/Canada border.
Greater synoptic subsidence via diff anti-cyclonic VA along the
inflection point of upper ridging/troughing over the Cntrl to Nrn
Plains should result in a strong sfc high developing. This sfc high
pressure is progged to move S/Ewrd acrs the Midwest and OH River
Valley, to the Nrn periphery of the FA. Another weak cdfrnt may
bring some slightly cooler temps and incrsg rain chances to portions
of Nrn to Cntrl AR late Sun into Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Winds should become
light and variable overnight. On Tues, daytime cumulus is expected
to develop and winds should be out of the S/SW at around 10 kts.
Winds could gust upwards of 20 kts near KHRO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  98  74  91 /   0  10  10  60
Camden AR         76  98  76  95 /  20  10  10  40
Harrison AR       75  96  71  88 /  10  10  20  60
Hot Springs AR    77  98  76  96 /  20  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  80  99  79  94 /  10  10  10  40
Monticello AR     78  98  78  94 /  20  10  10  50
Mount Ida AR      75  96  74  94 /  20  10  10  40
Mountain Home AR  75  97  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
Newport AR        76 100  76  93 /   0  10  20  60
Pine Bluff AR     78  98  77  94 /  20  10  10  50
Russellville AR   78  98  76  94 /  10  10  10  50
Searcy AR         75  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  50
Stuttgart AR      79  98  79  93 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-033-034-045>047-052-053-056-057-062>069-103-112-113-123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-
032-039-042>044-054-055-121-122.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...70