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077
FXUS64 KMAF 081650
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today will look remarkably similar to the last few days, with
highs once again reaching into the middle 90s to lower 100s across
the region. Locations will generally be a degree or two warmer
today than yesterday, in spite of the mid-level ridge translating
eastward toward the Gulf Coast. If you want to get away from the
heat, even the mountains won`t provide much respite, and with
highs in the 95-97 degree range in the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains today, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas.
Elsewhere, locations remain below criteria, but Heat Advisories
aside, it`s going to be HOT, so anyone who has outdoor plans today
or who works outdoors will need to keep heat safety in mind, stay
hydrated, and stay cool as much as possible. Similar to previous
days, diurnally-driven sub- severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of Southeast New
Mexico and Southwest Texas, with ample moisture maintained by
persistent southeasterly surface flow. The difference today is
that given the aforementioned ridge`s eastward displacement,
storms are likely to move off the mountains toward the Pecos
River, giving more people a chance to see rain. Despite this,
forecast rainfall amounts remain very low, with lightning and
gusty winds a bigger concern for potential fire starts given dry
fuels to the west.

Storms that develop today will linger into this evening,
gradually diminishing after sunset. Continued return flow enhanced
by the nocturnal low-level jet keeps lows on the mild side
tonight, in the 60s in the mountains and lower to middle 70s
across the plains. Heading into Sunday, the heat continues with
widespread 90s and lower 100s, though it`ll be around 1 to 3
degrees cooler for most as thicknesses decrease slightly. The
pattern begins to shift, becoming a bit more unsettled with a
southern stream trough to the west of the area, and a cold front
extending from a broader trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast
that will sag southward toward the region by Sunday afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm chances increase across
Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Sunday
afternoon, along with the seemingly ever-present diurnal storms
over the higher terrain to the west. A few storms across northern
areas may become strong in spite of weak ascent, given steep low
level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing gusty downburst winds, which will be the main concern
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures are forecast with
a cold front moving through Sunday night and clearing the area
along or northeast of the Pecos River Monday, especially north of
I-10. Rainfall amounts in any showers and storms will be low, a
few tenths of an inch at most, but coverage will be slightly more
than past days where rainfall has been confined to west of the
Pecos River and driven not by synoptic forcing but instead heating
of elevated terrain. Upper ridging quickly builds back in behind
the dissipating cold front Tuesday and persists into next weekend.
Rain chances also return to a diurnally driven setup from heating
of elevated terrain and closer proximity to the dryline over
westernmost regions. Overall, a typical summertime atmospheric
pattern can be expected.

Lows Sunday night remain a few degrees above average and mostly
in the 60s, 70s across the southern Permian Basin, along the
Permian Basin, and near the Rio Grande. Highs Monday will be below
average northeast of the Pecos River and a few degrees above
average southwest of the Pecos River, with highs in the 80s over
northernmost Lea County, Permian Basin, and higher elevations,
triple digits confined to the Rio Grande, and 90s everywhere else.
Monday night will be similar to Sunday night but slightly cooler,
with lows falling into the 60s over more of the Permian Basin and
along the Pecos River Valley. On Tuesday, highs in triple digits
make a reappearance along the Pecos River, as well as over the
Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, with 105+ degree
readings along the Rio Grande and 90s elsewhere, overall 5 to 15
degrees above average for mid June. Lows Tuesday night likewise
feature mainly 70s, 60s over higher elevations and northern parts
of the SE NM plains and the Permian Basin. Highs Wednesday feature
more widespread triple digits readings along the Pecos River than
Tuesday, and 105+ degree readings appearing over the Reeves
County Plains. Lows Tuesday night similar to Monday night but
warmer can be expected. Highs Wednesday through Saturday will be
10 to 15 degrees above average and in the triple digits for most
regions aside from higher elevations, with 105+ readings along the
Pecos River and along the Rio Grande. Lows will also remain above
average and outside of northernmost areas and higher elevations
struggle to fall below the 70s each night from mid week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field this afternoon in return flow,
w/bases 6-8 kft AGL. Convection will be possible, but chances too
low for a mention. Tonight, a 35+ kt LLJ will keep winds elevated
in the east. An approaching front will begin backing winds in the
north, while driving a dryline east in the south, which will make
for some variable winds, especially KFST/KPEQ. Another cu field is
anticipated near the end of the forecast period, w/bases 5-11 kft
AGL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Big Spring               76 101  69  89 /   0  20  50  40
Carlsbad                 72 100  68  93 /  20  20  40  40
Dryden                   75 104  74  96 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            76 104  70  96 /  10  10  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           72  91  65  88 /  30  20  30  30
Hobbs                    71  99  64  89 /  20  30  60  40
Marfa                    62  96  59  93 /  40  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     76 101  69  90 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                   76 101  70  90 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                     75 105  71  96 /  10  10  30  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis
     Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44