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454
FXUS62 KMHX 181945
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and
warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to
the region late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM Tue...Expansive mid-level ridge remains in place
over much of the eastern seaboard as high pressure, anchored
several hundred miles offshore, continues to extend
southwestward over much of the southeastern CONUS. Highs today
are nearly identical to yesterday, but with persistent easterly
flow low-level moisture is marginally deeper.

Another quiet evening is in store as high and ridge remain in
place. Low-level moisture will continue to slowly increase
overnight with persistent onshore flow, and would not be
surprised to see some instances of stratus encroaching inland
overnight. Lows tonight will still make a run into the lower 60s
across the inner coastal plain, but along the coast 70s will be
more prevalent.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 PM Tue...Strongest part of the ridging will shift
northward into the mid-Atlantic and New England, and thicknesses
will modestly fall tomorrow in response. This change will do
little to affect apparent weather, with another day of mainly
dry weather as highs touch the mid to upper 80s with a few
spotty 90 readings. With the weakness in the ridge, guidance is
a bit more excited about coastal showers grazing the coast but
think forcing and ample subsidence will keep activity subdued.
Kept mentionable PoPs out of the forecast this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

 - Watching the Southwest Atlantic through late-week

 - Building heat and humidity likely (60-80% chance) this weekend
into next week

 - Increased storminess possible (30-50% chance) by next week

Synoptic Summary: An impressive mid-upper level ridge is forecast to
remain anchored over the Eastern U.S. through the end of the week.
Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge is forecast to break
down, or shift west, with upper level troughing returning to the
Eastern U.S. At the SFC, a strong area of high pressure is forecast
to remain over the Carolinas through mid-week. The high is then
forecast to shift offshore by the weekend, with lee-troughing
developing. A frontal boundary may try to sneak south into ENC early
next week.

Wednesday-Thursday: Despite impressive ridging at the surface and
aloft, an area of relatively lower low-level thicknesses are
forecast to remain in place within the easterly onshore flow across
the Carolinas through mid-week. This should keep temps close to
normal, locally, with the more impressive heat remaining focused to
our north across the Mid-Atlantic and New England. A moistening
easterly flow may support coastal shower activity moving west off
the Atlantic, especially Wednesday, but outside of weak WAA, there
isn`t much forcing, and I expect most areas will remain dry.

Friday-Saturday: Medium range guidance begin to differ during this
time, especially with the evolution of the above-mentioned mid-upper
level ridge. In general, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and
potentially shift west. Initially, the ridge overhead should keep
the tropical wave in the SW Atlantic on a westerly path through mid-
week. Then, late in the week, the evolution of the ridge will help
determine where the wave goes from there. The general consensus
among deterministic and ensemble guidance has been a more southerly
track with the wave, and weaker with any surface reflection. Of
note, the westward-shifting ridge may actually slow the forward
progress of the wave as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. Some
ensemble members even bring what`s left of the wave north as a
weakness develops within the broader ridge aloft. The key message
here is that we`ll still keep an eye on the SW Atlantic, but
guidance is trending towards something less noteworthy for now.

What is more certain during this time is the development of a
moistening return flow as SFC high pressure shifts offshore. This is
forecast to occur regardless of what happens with the above
mentioned wave. Despite the moistening low-levels, a lack of
appreciable forcing should keep the chance of showers/storms low.
With the increasing moisture will come increasing humidity, with a
"feels like" temp approaching 100 degrees by Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday: Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing
a consistent signal for above normal temperatures and an increased
risk of heat-related impacts thanks to continued southerly flow and
increasing low-level thicknesses. During this period, the "feels
like" temperature is forecast to reach 100-105 degrees, especially
Sunday and Monday.

By Monday and Tuesday, southwesterly flow aloft tapping into a very
moist pool of Gulf of Mexico moisture should support PWATs climbing
back above 2". At minimum, the forecast pattern will favor a more
active seabreeze. Additionally, though, there may be some added
support from a shortwave, or two, and a frontal boundary trying to
drop south into the area. In light of all of this, ensemble guidance
has shown a consistent signal for increased storminess early next
week which will be welcomed given the very dry pattern of late. This
also appears to be the next appreciable chance of wetting rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wed/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...Relatively quiet flying day unfolding
across the region this afternoon with Atlantic high pressure
still remaining firmly in control over ENC. Healthy cu field is
in place area wide with generally easterly winds, gusting up to
15 kt at times along coastal areas.

Winds calm overnight, but with increased low-level moisture
advection there will be a risk for some lower stratus drifting
onshore, particularly for EWN/OAJ. Confidence is moderate
(30-40%) in MVFR cigs during the pre-dawn hours, and stepped the
forecast in that direction for the 18z TAFs to give future
shifts a chance to reanalyze conditions.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the work
week, with minimal impacts to aviation expected. By the weekend,
increasingly gusty southwest winds are likely, along with at least a
modest increase in the risk of SHRA and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 345 Tues...Quiet boating conditions remain in place as
high pressure, anchored several hundred miles offshore, remains
anchored in place. Regional observations show easterly winds of
10-15 kt with seas still around 3-4 feet. Pattern will change
little tomorrow and expect similar conditions to carry into
Wednesday evening. Seas will begin to build across outer waters
late in the period as swell with a distant tropical wave impacts
the southeast coast.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

 - Elevated seas possible mid-week (30-50% chance)

 - Elevated wind and seas possible this weekend (40-60% chance)

Through mid-week, we`ll be keeping an eye on a weak tropical wave
moving west through the Southwest Atlantic. Guidance has trended
weaker and further south with this wave, which may tend to keep seas
lower than previously forecast. However, there`s still at least some
potential for 6ft seas across portions of the central and southern
waters Wednesday and Thursday. Given the lower chance, and lower
confidence, no marine headlines are planned at this time. Otherwise,
good boating conditions continue with a continued easterly wind of 5-
15kt through Thursday. Winds become southerly late in the week and
over the weekend, while also building to 10-20kt. A period of 25kt
winds appears possible over the weekend. Seas will begin to build as
well, providing another opportunity for 6ft seas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3:30 AM Tue...A dry airmass will be in place through mid
week, with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially
away from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at
times, and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX