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564
FXUS62 KMHX 201714
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
114 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge southwards across the Carolinas and
remain entrenched across the Mid-Atlantic through this weekend
allowing for benign conditions across the area. Next potential
frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at least mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 115 PM Fri... Diurnal cumulus field has developed across
ENC this afternoon and with a light NE`rly wind and steadily
warming temps, it remains quite pleasant outside. Have noted
some light reflectivity off to the west associated with some
light showers near the I-95 corridor within the last hour, but
continue to keep ENC precip free this afternoon as a lack of
stronger forcing will inhibit shower activity. All that being
said, couldn`t rule out a brief sprinkle or two especially
across the Coastal Plain.

High pressure will build over NC from the
north today and tonight. Residual low level moisture has led to
the development of areas of fog and low stratus clouds early
this morning. The fog and low clouds will mix out by late
morning. Diurnal heating could result in an isolated inland
shower with the best chance for this to occur will be west of
I95, therefore will continue with a dry forecast for today.
Highs will range from the low 80s inland to the upper 70s
beaches.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Friday...Quiet weather continues tonight across
eastern NC as high pressure prevails. Expecting good radiational
cooling with mostly clear skies and light winds which should
promote the development of patchy fog and/or low clouds again
after midnight. Lows inland will ne in the low to mid 60s and
upper 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Ridging starts building in through the
weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually
shifting further offshore to our east. Slight chances of rain
Sunday-Sunday night (20%) but otherwise a dry forecast through
Tuesday. Seasonable temps through the period and generally dry
through Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase mid to late week
as ridging weakens and a low treks across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region.


The Weekend:
Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes
over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting
southeast, but there is still some model uncertainty on the
strength of the low. Regardless it will be too far away for any
direct impacts, and a more further offshore trend in the track
caused me to lower winds a tad. Expanded the slight chance of
showers (and thunderstorms during peak heating) Sunday with
synoptic models all keying in on 2 waves of potential rainfall.

First Sunday morning a weak front and associated isentropic lift
from a low developing near the Great Lakes moves through the
region. Ridging from a high to our E/SE will help shelter the
southern half of the CWA from rainfall, but have expanded the
slight chance PoP mentions for the northern half where ridging
is a bit weaker. This front fizzles out as it crosses our CWA.

The second wave looks to be Sunday afternoon/evening as a
boundary ahead of ridging building in from the north could
initiate showers over ENC. Introduced Schc PoPs with this
update, opting to not go higher as we have a lack of upper level
support.

Monday-Thursday:
Low offshore could produce high swell impacting OBX beaches
Monday-Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more
information.

Ridging and dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night ridging starts to weaken over ENC as a low
approaches from the midwest, pushing the high further northeast.
While a cold front from this low will be pushing through the
ohio and mississippi valley Tuesday, there is uncertainty on
when the front will reach us. If the ridge takes longer to move
out of here, the front could reach us as soon as Wednesday
morning. There is also a chance that the front doesn`t reach us
at all if ridge remains stubborn. Kept PoPs at Schc for now
Wednesday with so much uncertainty with the front. High
offshore helps channel moisture towards ENC mid to late week,
increasing PoPs to Chc/Schc Wednesday night onwards as we enter
a wetter pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 115 PM Friday...VFR conditions forecast across ENC this
afternoon as diurnal Cu field continues to lift closer to 4-6
kft as ENC mixes out. Expect to start off the evening under
clearing skies as diurnal Cu field dissipates. As we get later
into tonight and after midnight, ample low level moisture
remains in place, and with light winds, and clearing skies,
guidance continues to suggest there will be a threat for low
stratus and at least patchy fog across the area. This threat is
mainly along and west of Hwy 17. Kept patchy fog in the forecast
and TAFs tonight mainly from 07/08Z to 13Z and left a SCT deck
of low stratus in the forecast. Will note some of the guidance
is giving a low end chance that the low stratus will inhibit fog
formation but as of this update the possibility seems too low
to discount fog threat. After about 13Z any leftover patchy fog
and low stratus quickly dissipate and VFR conditions are
forecast for Sat. WInds will remain light generally coming from
a N-NE direction.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term
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&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 625 AM Friday...No changes to previous thinking. SCA`s
are in effect for the coastal waters north of Ocracoke as swell
from distant low pressure in the Atlantic moves into the
northern and central waters this afternoon and tonight. N winds
5-10 kt this morning will become NE and increase to 10-15 kt
this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the
waters from the north. Seas south of Ocracoke Inlet will be 2-4
ft today, building to 3-5 ft tonight. North of Ocracoke Inlet
seas 3-5 ft this morning will build to 4-6 ft this afternoon and
tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 400 AM Friday...SCA In Effect through 6Z Tuesday (and will
likely need to be extended further with future updates) for
coastal waters north of Ocracoke.

Sustained NE winds 10-15 kt Saturday and Sunday, then 15-20 kt
Monday before dropping back down to 10-15 kt Tuesday. Winds have
continued trending down Sunday into Monday, forecasted to remain
generally below 25 kts. Waves greater than 6 ft from the low
offshore have warranted an SCA issuance for the coastal waters
N of Ocracoke (with other coastal waters also likely to reach
SCA criteria seas early next week given the current forecast),
Seas will be 2-7 ft Saturday, 2-6 ft Sunday, and 2-8 ft
Monday/Tuesday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in
higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will
be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape
Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height
ranges. OBX (particularly north of Hatteras) and the Gulf Stream will
not be protected and will see the higher values in the ranges
above.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 415 AM Friday...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle
through this weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect
for all oceanside coastal areas into Sunday mornings high tide.
Increased swell from a low offshore brings minor overwash
concerns early next week for OBX north of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RCF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX