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234
FXUS63 KMKX 161537
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1037 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Scattered showers and storms through early afternoon.

- High swim risk today for Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan
  and Ozaukee counties and a moderate swim risk for Milwaukee,
  Racine and Kenosha counties.

- Hot weather today into the middle of the week. Heat indices in
  the lower 90s on Sunday, middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday and
  lower 90s on Wednesday.

- Chances for thunderstorms through the week.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Morning showers and storms linger for the remainder of the
morning before pushing out. Have seen some of the storms on the
backside drop some small hail and gusty winds around 30-35 mph,
but these storms will decrease in coverage/move out within the
next few hours. However, this activity and associated cloud
cover has tamped down temps a bit this morning, but the latest
visible satellite imagery shows things clearing from the
southwest and will likely see temps jump up pretty quick with
the sunshine. Given the morning rain plus the anticipated warm
up with temps still climbing into the upper 80s and even low
90s, it looks to make for steamy afternoon with higher heat
indices in the low to mid 90s.

Otherwise, keeping an eye on some additional shower and
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and early evening
(22-03z) along the WI/IL border mainly along and east of
I-39/90 and south of I-94. The main driver of this redevelopment
will be the MCV feature located over north-central MO late this
morning. With the environment recovering and ample daytime
heating, moisture, should see storms develop as this features
treks across the region. The current trajectory favors the MCV
to track across IL and may keep most of the activity south of
the Cheddar Curtain. However, the 12z HRRR and ARW are some of
the few CAMs picking up on this feature and can maybe squeak the
northern extent of this activity north of the border. With it
cannot rule out a stronger storm or two to drop heavy rainfall,
hail, and localized gusty winds and a severe thunderstorm is not
out of realm of possibility as well given the unstable/moist
environment with meager 20-30 kt of deep layer shear. Will need
to monitor trends, but have upped PoPs and thunderstorm chances
for this timeframe for the southeastern portions of the CWA.

Wagner
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today and Tonight:

A shortwave trough, currently located over Minnesota and Iowa, will
move across southern Wisconsin during the late morning hours
bringing some showers now through early afternoon. Instability
builds to around 1000 J/KG from the west as 40 knot low level jet
over western Wisconsin brings a surge of moisture. The best chances
for storms will be southwest and south-central Wisconsin. Mid level
ridging builds in behind the trough for the afternoon along with a
weak cap minimizing afternoon showers. Southwest winds will gust
around 25 to 30 mph due to deep mixing tapping the low level jet.

Much warmer and more humid temperatures are expected for the early
part of the week. A strong mid level ridge sets up over the
southeast U.S. as low pressure develops over the central plains.
This brings strong and moist southerly flow into the region. Today
highs will be around 90 with heat index values in the mid 90s.

There is a high swim risk today for Lake Michigan beaches in
Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties. There is a moderate swim risk today
for Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties. Life threatening waves
and currents are expected. Have a floatation device.

Marquardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday and Tuesday

Some areas may see heat index values near 100 on Monday and they
will be in the upper 90s on Tuesday.

There is a 20% chance of pop up storms on Monday and Tuesday. Many
areas will be dry. There will be 2000-3000 J/KG of instability and
20 knots of shear but there is lack of forcing to trigger storms.
The better chances for showers and storms will be to our northwest
where a strong low level jet surges into a frontal boundary
draped across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.

Wednesday through Saturday

The frontal boundary will slowly push southward through the state
sometime on Wednesday or Thursday bringing a better chance for rain
and thunderstorms. Lift will be aided by the right entrance region
of an upper jet. Highs may reach 90 in southeast Wisconsin on
Wednesday before the front moves through then highs will likely be
in the 80s later in the week. The frontal boundary may linger in the
area through the week bringing additional precipitation and storm
chances.

Marquardt
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Broken line of showers and thunderstorms brought brief
reduction in visibility along with gusty winds and wind shift.
However, this activity will linger along the lakefront counties
for another few hours before pushing east. For the rest of today
expect warm, humid and gusty conditions with south to
southwesterly winds gusting to 20-35 knots. May see additional
thunderstorm development later the afternoon and evening, mainly
for our southern terminals JVL, ENW and possibly as far north
as MKE, but the more favorable conditions look to be south of
the WI/IL. Still can see some of this activity cross north of
the border and cannot rule out a strong storm or two, which can
bring heavy rainfall, hail, and localized gusty winds along with
a brief hour or two period of lower flight conditions.
Otherwise, mostly VFR and gusty winds should prevail through the
period.

Wagner
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Winds and waves will increase today. The northern half of the open
waters will see some gusts around 30 knots.

A small craft advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 10 pm today.
Strongest winds will be during the day, then waves will linger into
the evening.

Fog may develop for Sunday night and Monday and may linger through
the early part of the week with the humid air mass over the lake.
South winds will increase again Monday night through Tuesday night.
Gusts in the open waters may reach 30 knots.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 1 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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