-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
147
FXUS63 KMKX 071522
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Continued breezy today with gusts of 25 to 30 mph

- Rain likely on Saturday with a very small chance of thunder

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures through early next
  week, then a warmup possible later next week
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued 1021 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No big changes for the rest of today. Strongest surface wind
across southern Wisconsin will occur through early afternoon
before gradually decreasing for the rest of this afternoon. It
will be especially gusty over and near Lake Michigan up to 21Z.
Otherwise, it should remain mostly sunny with low humidity
until sunset. A quiet weather evening ahead.

KPL
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today through Saturday:

Northwest flow will continue across the area today, bringing
another round of breezy conditions to southern Wisconsin. There
should be more sunshine today than yesterday, though afternoon
cumulus is expected and could resulted in scattered to broken
cover. Temps will likely be a touch milder today, near normal
values for early June.

Clouds will increase tonight into Saturday as a shortwave pushes
into the area. Showers are likely with this system, with
precipitable water values rising to 1 to 1.25 inches. Bumped up
precip chances to 50-70% based on decent agreement among models
for solid forcing to go along with increased moisture. Could see
a little afternoon thunder, depending how how much the warm
sector of this system can sneak in from the south. Should see
temps back to a few degrees below normal due to clouds and rain
chances.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sunday through Thursday:

Northwest flow will generally linger through the early part of
next week, keeping temps near to a bit below normal. May see a
shortwave or two push through the area and a bring a chance for
showers during this period, but not great agreement among models
to ramp up precip chances any particular day.

Looks like the flow may turn a bit more zonal by mid week, with
a couple models showing a warmer ridge building in by later in
the week. Temps thus trend upwards through the second half of
the extended period. There will likely be a chance for showers
and maybe a few storms at times mid to late week, but confidence
is low in daily precip chances once again due to poor model
agreement.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 1021 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

West-Northwest surface wind will gradually decrease through this
afternoon across southern Wisconsin. Highest wind gusts should
occur from 16Z to 20z. Even sustained winds will fall after 21Z
from KMSN to KMKE. Otherwise, VFR conditions and a mostly clear
sky will dominate into this evening.

KPL
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Breezy west to northwest winds are expected today between low
pressure near the Ontario/Quebec border and high pressure
centered over Arkansas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 7 pm CDT. Somewhat lighter winds are likely over the
weekend, with breezy northerly winds then developing Sunday
night into Monday as high pressure approaches from the west.

DDV
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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