-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
032
FXUS63 KMKX 161440
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
940 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Summer-like warmth continues through this week. Daytime highs
  will range between five and fifteen degrees above normal.

- Dry conditions prevail through most of the week, with the next
  chance for showers and storms this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued 940 CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Warm and dry weather continues today across the region, with
just passing mid and high level clouds, most widespread west of
Madison.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Boxell
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today through Tuesday:

More localized ground fog is expected to linger in the usual
low lying areas into this morning, especially east of the Kettle
Moraine. Otherwise, a 500 mb high will linger well to the east
of the region into Tuesday, with a 500 mb trough becoming
negatively tilted as it shifts through the Central Rockies. This
should allow surface high pressure to remain stacked with the
500 mb high, and low pressure to linger over eastern Montana.

This should result in continued middle to high clouds pushing
northward through the area at times, with sunshine mixing in as
well. Well above normal temperatures will continue, with highs
into the middle to upper 80s inland today and Tuesday, and
somewhat cooler near Lake Michigan with onshore winds. May see
more ground fog overnight tonight in the usual low lying areas.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Ensembles continue to suggest that the remnants of the tropical
cyclone moving into the Carolinas and Central Appalachian
Mountain region should remain to the east and southeast of the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. An amplified skinny ridge
axis at 500 mb should develop over Wisconsin Wednesday into
Thursday, which should maintain dry conditions and continued
very warm temperatures. Onshore winds should keep areas near the
lake a little cooler once again.

Ensembles suggest that the 500 mb flow should try to become more
zonal Friday into the weekend, with low pressure possibly
shifting northeast either through or to the northwest of
Wisconsin. A lot of uncertainty here with the details, but this
may be our next decent chances for showers and some
thunderstorms. Temperatures look to remain warm into the
weekend.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued 940 AM CDT Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the day today, with just
passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will remain from the
southeast. Some patchy fog is again possible late tonight/early
Tuesday, but should be limited in coverage.

Boxell
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

High pressure around 30.3 inches over the Northeast and low
pressure around 29.4 inches over eastern Montana will remain
fairly stationary into Wednesday. The high will weaken to around
30.0 inches Thursday, with the low strengthening to around 29.3
inches. Light to modest south to southeast winds are expected
over the lake during this time. Low pressure may approach the
region sometime this weekend.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee