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984
FXUS63 KMKX 141945
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less humid today and Saturday with seasonable highs.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Saturday into Sunday.

- Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work
  week. Heat indices in the upper 90s may be possible Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
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Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight through Sunday Morning:

Forecast is expected to remain quiet tonight with weak high
pressure overhead with a fairly strong ridge nudging into the
region behind the dry shortwave to the east. This ridging is
expected to largely dominate the region over the next several
days. Saturday during the day will thus largely be quiet though
the high pressure could (50%) feature another weak backdoor
cold front that would really just be a strong lake breeze
pushing well to the west by the late afternoon hours.

Some embedded shortwave activity within the ridge will push
through Saturday late evening into early Sunday morning with
some help from the strengthening 40-60 kt LLJ overnight in
addition to some help from the deep surface low in south central
Canada. This will likely (80%) bring some showers and storms
across parts of the region though with the LLJ primarily staying
off to the west of the CWA most of the stronger storm potential
will stay off to the north and west. Southeast parts of the CWA
may (50%) actually remain dry with the northwest half of the
CWA seeing 60-90% (lessening chances further southeast you go)
chances for showers and storms. We will be monitoring the far
northwest parts of the area for perhaps a few stronger storms
but given the overall timing of this system strong to severe
storms remain unlikely (10%). This system may linger into Sunday
morning before ultimately pushing off to the north and east.

Kuroski
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Sunday Afternoon through Friday:

Sunday Through Friday

Synopsis: The shortwave trough responsible for increasing shower &
storm chances through Saturday night/the conclusion of the short
term period will migrate east of the region by Sunday evening. The
feature`s departure will give way to an upper pattern broadly
characterized by subtropical ridging along the Eastern Seaboard and
mean troughing across the west through the long term period. Located
along the western periphery of said ridging, hot high temperatures
will prevail across the region through the first half of next week.
Emerging out of the aforementioned western troughing, an upper
disturbance will eject into the Northern Plains on Tuesday,
progressing into the Canadian prairies on Wednesday. An affiliated
surface low will concurrently take a similar track, dragging a cold
front into the Upper Mississippi Valley in the process. Said
boundary is likely to stall out somewhere between the Missouri
Valley and Western Great Lakes during the mid-late week period next
week, supporting additional shower and storm potential Wednesday
through Friday.

Sunday Through Tuesday: Very warm high temperatures will prevail
across southern Wisconsin as upper ridging builds over the eastern
half of the CONUS. The afternoon update shows readings ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s away from Lake Michigan each day. Southerly
winds & heightened dew points will combine with the warm
temperatures to create muggy conditions, with heat indices in the
low to mid 90s possible during each afternoon period. Be sure to
drink plenty of water, wear light-colored & loose-fitting clothing,
and take frequent breaks in the shade if planning to be outdoors for
prolonged amounts of time during this portion of the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each
afternoon, though widespread activity is not expected.

Wednesday Through Friday: Warm conditions will continue, though high
temps will be a touch cooler compared to earlier in the week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue with a surface front progged
to stall over the Western Great Lakes. Coverage & precise PoPs will
depend upon precise positioning of the stalled frontal feature,
which remains uncertain at this time. Will continue to monitor
trends and make adjustments as necessary over the coming forecast
cycles. It remains too early to comment on any strong/severe
potential in storms developing during the late week period.

Quigley
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly clear skies expected tonight with weak high pressure
overhead and the atmosphere generally lacking moisture. Into
Saturday we will see another lake breeze especially with
southeast winds possibly pushing quickly west.

Additionally, Saturday, with a system pushing in, mid to upper
level CIGS will slide it with southeast winds gradually picking
up in the evening and overnight hours as they shift more
southerly. Some showers and storms are expected for parts of
southern WI Saturday night into Sunday, though focused more
north and west with some MVFR CIGS possible for a period in far
western WI.


Kuroski
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Breezy northerly winds over most of the lake will gradually
turn to the southeast and weaken overnight as high pressure
slides to the east of the region. Modest southeasterly winds
will then persist through Saturday into Saturday night. Winds
will then turn southerly and gusty on Sunday as a tighter
pressure gradient moves over the Upper Great Lakes. There will
likely be a need for a Small Craft Advisory for at least part of
the nearshore waters Sunday. Otherwise modest southerly winds
will likely dominate the region through at least midweek with
low pressure off to the west.


Kuroski
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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