-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
379
FXUS64 KMOB 212308
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
607 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through Saturday. Calm or light and
variable winds tonight become northeasterly 5 to 10 knots on
Saturday, except for a switch to a southerly direction near the
coast by early afternoon. /29
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
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/issued 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The forecast remains on track today with only minor tweaks to lower
the dewpoints based on current observations. Other than that, the cu
field has developed over the past hour or so as the sea breeze
continues to hover right along the coastal interface.

The local area remains underneath an elongated ridge aloft while a
sprawling surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip
on much of the Southeast. Winds at the surface remain easterly to
southeasterly on the western periphery of the surface high. Slightly
drier air will filter into the region late this afternoon
(especially east of I-65) with the HREF showing PWATs rebounding
back to 1.4-1.6 inches along the coast by Saturday afternoon. Expect
much of the local area to remain dry tonight through Saturday as
high pressure remains in control of the weather. That said, isolated
showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze by Saturday
afternoon, but the activity will likely be confined to Santa Rosa
and Okaloosa Counties in northwest Florida.

Heat stress is a concern early this weekend with highs topping out
in the mid to upper 90s for inland communities (low 90s at the
beaches) as heat indices soar into the 100-104 range on
Saturday.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains HIGH as local beaches
fly RED or DOUBLE RED flags today. Conditions should slowly begin to
subside as we slide into the weekend with a MODERATE risk expected
by Saturday. 07/mb

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A deepening upper trough over/along the East Coast will shift the
east end of an upper ridge stretching east over the Southeast
southwest to over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge that has
started building west over the Gulf of Mexico becomes more organized
over the central Gulf, creating a more organized southwest to
westerly flow over the forecast area, bringing Gulf moisture inland
in the process. Also, guidance is advertising a weak cold front
moving south across the Southeast, reaching the northern Gulf coast
by Tuesday morning before stalling. All this low level activity
increases precipitable moisture levels over the forecast area from
around 1.2"-1.5" Saturday evening to around 2" or higher by Monday
evening. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to temper
thunderstorm creation instability, though, limiting rain coverage
over land areas Sunday and maybe allow isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. With MLCapes limited to
around 1500J/kg or less Monday afternoon and DCapes of 700-900J/kg,
may see a rumbler become strong to marginally severe. Add in weak
shear (EBWD shear 15kts or less), the risk of organized storms is
pretty low. Am expecting direction of this convection to be outflow
driven as a result. There is a bit higher chance of stronger storms
closer to the coast as the southward moving weak cold front and a
northward moving Gulf breeze interact.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above
seasonal norms, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s over
most of the forecast area Sunday and Monday. The increasing moisture
levels will combine with the hot temperatures to create heat indices
in the 10-105 degree range Sunday and 105-110 on Monday. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for Monday into the extended. Low
temperatures in the low 70s to mid/upper 70s south of I-10 see an
uptick for Sunday and Monday nights, with mid 70s south of Highway
84 and upper 70s along the coast.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Guidance continues to shift the east coast upper trough west over
the Southeast, shifting the upper ridge ab it more southwest of
Southeast. The latest guidance is advertising a strong upper level
shortwave trough moving into the mean upper trough Wednesday night
into Thursday and organize into a closed upper low by Friday. Rain
coverage increases to scattered to likely for Wednesday and
Thursday. With the range of possible solutions increasing for
Friday, am less confident of the scattered convection in the
forecast. Temperatures remain well above seasonal for Tuesday, with
heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. With the loss of upper
subsidence through the rest of the week, temperatures fall closer to
seasonal norms with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms next week. 07/mb
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  95  73  95  75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  10   0  30  20  60
Pensacola   75  93  76  94  78  95  79  93 /   0  10   0  10  10  40  30  50
Destin      78  90  79  91  79  93  79  92 /   0  20  10  10  10  40  30  50
Evergreen   69  97  71  97  72  96  73  95 /   0  10   0  10  10  40  20  60
Waynesboro  69  97  71  98  73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10  10  30  20  60
Camden      68  96  71  96  73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10  10  40  20  60
Crestview   70  97  71  98  73  98  74  96 /   0  20   0  20   0  40  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

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