-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
360
FXUS63 KMPX 110202
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
902 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight into Tuesday
  morning. Redevelopment of a few strong thunderstorms possible
  in eastern MN/WI Tuesday afternoon.

- Warm and muggy Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible
  in the afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures to end the week with precip chances
  returning next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overnight and Tuesday...A line of showers and thunderstorms
across the Dakotas will continue marching eastward overnight.
Instability and deep layer shear is limited, so expect mainly
rain, but could have a stray rumble of thunder. The risk for
severe weather or heavy rain is very low. This line of showers
will move out, and as the discussion below stated, a narrow
ribbon of instability will build and could lead to a few strong
to severe thunderstorms generally in the 3pm to 9pm timeframe.
These will not be widespread, but could produce some large hail
or gusty winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures
reaching the low 70s across many areas this afternoon. A few
high clouds were observed over northwestern MN and making their
way eastward. Cloud coverage will increase as the night
progresses as a shortwave consisting of showers and
thunderstorms approaches from our west. Timing remains
consistent with the previous discussion where western MN precip
develops around 1 AM, MN/WI border by 7 AM, and departing
western WI early afternoon. Another batch of thunderstorm
development remains in the CAM guidance. Strength and intensity
will greatly depend on cloud cover following in the wake of
earlier precip. Should enough surface heating occur between
breaks in this cloud cover, 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40kts
of bulk shear could become available to generate scattered
strong thunderstorms. Given the elevated instability, the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has place a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor and east into
Wisconsin with wind and hail being the primary threats. The
forecasted QPF with this system will range between one to two
tenths of an inch, although a few areas could see closer to a
half inch where updrafts are strongest.

Wednesday forecast looks to provide us a good taste of summer. It
will be a hot and muggy day across the northern plains where
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s and even a few 90s
(especially across western MN). Accompanying the warmer air,
southerly flow will also increase surface dew points into the 60s.
Zonal flow aloft will advect in a shortwave that develops over the
intermountain west. As of now by tomorrow afternoon, an environment
that consists of 2000-3000 MLCAPE, 40-50 bulk shear, and PWATs
between 1.5-1.8" will create another chance of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Much of central and southern MN,
and western WI have been placed under a slight risk (level 1 of 2)
for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. The initial severe threat will
begin as supercells capable of producing large (and potentially very
large ~near 2.0") hail across western and central MN. Upscale growth
with this system is expected as the evening progresses and therefore
the initial hail threat will become a wind threat over eastern
MN and western WI. Another hazard will be torrential rainfall as
PWATs range between 1.5-1.8" in the forecast guidance. Flash
flooding is not concern other than small streams and the typical
urban areas. QPF with this event looks to be the better
performer than the preceding Tuesday system with accumulations
between a half inch to an inch of rain. Highest amounts will
linger around southeastern MN.

For the rest of the forecast period, Thursday will hang onto slight
PoPs as a secondary frontal boundary advances across the northern
plains. Temperatures will return to the lower 80s. Friday will be
another beautiful day as skies look to be mostly clear as ridging
will be at its max over the central CONUS. By Saturday, the ridge
progs east and and another shortwave will bring likely showers and
thunder Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast guidance at the h850
levels holding onto the idea of a "ring of fire" over the east coast
which will place MN/WI on the western periphery. This meaning highs
could reach into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions this evening, becoming MVFR this evening and
overnight as rain moves in from the Dakotas and from west-to-
east across the region. Could see reductions in visibility and
ceilings less than 3000ft on Tuesday morning. There is a small
chance for thunder, but for now did not include a mention of
thunder in the morning TAFs. There will be some redevelopment
Tuesday afternoon and evening, so did include a Prob30 for
thunder at KMSP, KMKT, KRNH, and KEAU.

KMSP...Rain will move in from the west Tuesday morning. The risk
for thunder is low, so did not include mention in the TAFS. On
Tuesday afternoon there could be some redevelopment near KMSP,
so did at a Prob30 for thunder from 19-22Z. The higher chance
for thunder is to the south and east of KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Mainly VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JRB