Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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228 FXUS63 KMPX 170827 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 327 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Showers and thunderstorms ongoing, with elevated storms posing a risk for severe hail (1" or more) and damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph). - Scattered showers & storms over the next few days with an increased risk of flooding due to training storms. Exact amounts will vary based on orientation of training thunderstorms.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Moderate to heavy rainfall has begun to push into western and southern Minnesota as of 0730z. Training of thunderstorms is occurring as steering flow is largely orientated parallel to the SW to NE thunderstorm axis. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall rates has peaked in the 1.5 to 2 inch range for parts of Redwood county so far, with more rain still moving through. Because of this, we have extended the Flood Watch further south to capture an increasing risk of flooding and heavy rain with this initial cluster of storms the morning. As these moved through SD and SW MN, FSD has noted multiple reports of gusts up to 50mph. Given the primed environment that these storms are heading into (sufficient instability, steep mid- level lapse rates, and effective shear greater than 35 kts), there will be continued risk for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts up to 40-65 mph will be possible through the morning, along with isolated large hail and a tornado or two. The threat should diminish late this morning, but light to moderate rain could continue through late this evening in some spots. By Tuesday morning, any lingering rain associated with the frontal boundary should push well into the northern half of Minnesota. A trailing cold front will then push through the region, producing a long and narrow band of showers/storms during the afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture transport via a 40-50kt LLJ should provide PWAT values of 2"+ as far north as Lake Superior. This in addition to strong forcing and an unstable airmass (MUCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg) along the front will result in another threat for some strong to severe storms within the band. The main threats along this line will be damaging wind gusts and pockets of large hail within the strongest cells. A smaller, but existent tornado risk looks to stretch from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin down to the southern Twin Cities metro where the latest forecast soundings/hodographs highlight more favorable low-level shear. Heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to be a concern with a broad area of 1"+ possible, depending on how slow the front progresses. Storms should begin to weaken and taper off as they head further east into Wisconsin around sunset. Also of note, temperatures could approach the 90 degree mark with dew points in the low 70s resulting in heat indices near 95 degrees. Heading into Wednesday, the passing front will stall southeast of the area, stretching from SE Neb up towards SE WI. Remnant forcing near the front is expected to produce some additional showers/storms, especially along the I-90 corridor. This front will push northward, resulting in continuous opportunities for additional rainfall across the region through Saturday. An additional 2 to 5 inches is possible from Wed-Sat, with the heaviest totals coming on Friday into Saturday where QPF maximum of 2.5" is forecasted over central Minnesota. There is still uncertainty is the exact severity and extent of the storms / heavy rain / flooding, but it will certainly be an active period to continue following. A brief period of relief from rain looks probable sometime early next week, before the pattern becomes unsettled again mid-week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The forecast remains on track as we await the arrival and persistence of widespread showers and storms today. A line of convection north of the frontal boundary is currently moving northeastward from southeastern SD, which is expected to fill in within the next few hours. Some of these initial storms could produce hail or strong gusts at times, but the main concern is heavy and prolonged periods of rainfall. These threats diminish throughout the day, but light rain could linger for some terminals in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin through late evening. Winds will gradually kick more southerly throughout the day as the front lifts north through the region. KMSP...Theme remains the same with rain/thunderstorms arriving around 09/10z depending on how quickly and how far south things develop. After a few hours of storms, more showery-like precipitation will follow. There is still uncertainty with how long these will stick around. Depending on coverage, it could be more like an on and off type of system which would last until late this evening/night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR/MVFR, TSRA/SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind S15-20G30-35kts. WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for Benton-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd. Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Anoka-Carver-Dakota- Hennepin-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley- Washington-Wright. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Blue Earth-Brown- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet- Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for Barron-Polk. Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for St. Croix. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Pierce.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...BED