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063
FXUS63 KOAX 141055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather today, but a thunderstorms will become likely
  tonight, with a marginal risk of severe storm or two across
  southeast Nebraska.

- Morning rain chances Saturday, with additional chances for
  possibly severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Daily storm chances exist at least somewhere in our coverage
  area every day from Sunday night through next week.

- Very hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday with
  afternoon heat index values around 98-102 each day. Elevated
  heat risk in the red category each day, but heat index values
  likely remaining just below official heat advisory levels of
  105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Quiet weather is expected this morning, but spotty showers could
begin to develop in northeast NE this afternoon in advance of
the next strong wave to move out of the central Rockies tonight.
Otherwise, it will be a beautiful, warm summer day with highs
in the middle to upper 80s with an east to southeast wind 10 to
15 mph. Dewpoints remain pretty comfortable in the lower to
middle 50s resulting in a heat index very similar to the
temperatures.

Storms are expected to develop across the wester high Plains
this afternoon, well west of the forecast area. But they
eventually moved eastward into our area resulting in
thunderstorms becoming likely for most areas. SPC has southeast
NE in a marginal risk for severe storms, with a small risk for
some gusty winds and large hail, while WPC has all of eastern
NE in a marginal risk for excessive heavy rainfall, but overall,
feel that widespread flooding isn`t expected, with potential
QPF amounts generally under an inch.

There will likely be numerous showers and thunderstorms
lingering Saturday morning that probably clear out before Noon.
And there will be a several hour break of no rainfall, but
thunderstorms could redevelop Saturday afternoon, and they could
be strong to severe when they do. Early afternoon outdoor
activities should be OK, but late afternoon and evening
activities could be experiencing heavy weather. SPC has a slight
risk of severe storms across most of the forecast area with a
15% risk for large hail and damaging winds, and a 2% risk for
tornadoes. High temperatures again reach the middle to upper
80s, but could reach the lower 90s in southeast NE.

Whatever storms develop Saturday evening could linger after
midnight as they move west to east, but would likely be east of
the forecast area by daybreak Sunday.

Most of the day Sunday should be dry, but becoming quite hot.
High temperatures are forecast to climb into the middle to upper
90s over a large portion of the area. Dewpoint temperatures by
then are forecast to be into the upper 60s by then, which
creates afternoon heat index values from 98 to 102 along and
south of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. This will create
elevated heat risk (a new experimental index that has been
released just this summer), but heat index values likely remain
just below official heat advisory criteria. Those with outdoor
plans Sunday should plan accordingly and stay hydrated with
plenty of water and seek plenty of breaks in the shade when
possible. Southerly winds will remain breezy at 15 to 25 mph so
that will help a little bit.

There will be a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Sunday night,
generally north of I80. SPC has also a marginal risk of severe
storms in the same area, and WPC has a slight risk of excessive
heavy rainfall.

Every day next week will have at least a chance of thunderstorms
somewhere in our forecast area, with a somewhat active weather
patten expected to continue. While it won`t be constant rain and
storms, we`ll have to watch out for daily storm chances, and
looking at machine learning severe weather progs from CSU,
there could potentially be at least some risk of severe storms
as well, but too low to mention any one area with certainty
based off of SPC guidance.

Monday does appear to be another very hot and humid day with
high temperatures again in the middle to upper 90s, with
dewpoints still in the upper 60s. Again, this will create
afternoon heat index values from 98 to 102, just likely below
heat advisory criteria, but high enough to create another day of
elevated category red heat risk. High temperatures are forecast
to cool just a little bit Tuesday, but highs still in the upper
80s to lower 90s. A frontal boundary could bring cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday, but
then back to the lower to middle 80s for Thursday, and the
middle to upper 80s for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the day today with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible but not mentioned (20%) at
OFK this afternoon. Better chances of showers / TSRA at all
three TAF sites after midnight where rough timing has been added
to the TAFs.

Light northeasterly winds now become southeasterly mid-
morning with a speed between 10-15 knots.
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&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen