


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --962 FXUS63 KOAX 110449 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected this evening, with greatest potential for northeast Nebraska & west-central Iowa. All hazards possible, with damaging winds and flash flooding as the biggest concerns. - Severe storms remain possible on Friday afternoon and evening, too, but lower chance (level 1 out of 5 risk from SPC). Primary hazards damaging winds and hail. - Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up Sunday through Tuesday. Active weather returns next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A line of storms is slowly drifting northeast this morning, which the Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) haven`t had the best handle on. Satellite and the 500-mb RAP Analysis show two distinct shortwaves approaching the area, one from the northwest over central South Dakota and the second from the west over the triple-point of Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. These two are forecast to merge later today, merging a couple of convective complexes into a line of storms which will move across our area. The preceding environment is fairly juicy with CAPE forecast to increase from 1500-3000 J/kg over the next few hours. Shear is looking strong as well, with 30-40kts of 0-3km bulk shear which will help organize storms into a strong line that should remain balance heightening potential for damaging winds, especially across northeast Nebraska. Low-level shear vectors will also become more orthogonal to the line with time, which could lead to some potential for brief tornadoes. One hindering factor could be LCL heights which will be on the higher side. Areas along and south of the Platte River should see cloud bases stay above 2000-3000 ft which significantly lowers the tornado potential. Areas in northeast Nebraska, though, will have lower LCLs, which is why the better tornado potential (5% from SPC) is highlighting this area. Now for timing and evolution of storms. Since the line has lifted north to near the state line, we expect discrete cells to start to initiate in the Oneill, Knox County, Antelope County region around 3-4 PM. At the same time, storms will start to initiate in east-central Nebraska around Merrick, Nance, Boone, and Platte counties associated with the southern shortwave. These two areas of cells will merge, becoming a single complex of storms by around 7 PM this evening, with a strong cold pool forecast to develop behind the northern portion of the line. The best chance for severe weather, again, will be across northeast Nebraska, but potential for damaging winds and hail will be possible across all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa as the line moves through. The line of storms will be approaching Lincoln around 9-10 PM, and move into the Omaha metro around 10-11 PM. The severe threat should be wrapping up by around midnight as the front line of storms moves east into central Iowa. Once the front line moves through, the concern shifts to heavy rain and flooding as PWATs are in the 1.5-2 inch range, and we see potential for a second surge of storms associated with a third shortwave trek along a remnant boundary near the Platte River. With this we likely will see some training storms over areas already saturated from earlier rainfall. Overall, we`ll likely see a broad swath of rain overnight of 1-1.5 inches, with localized areas seeing 5+ inches. With significant potential for flash flooding across the region along and north of the Platte River, we went ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa through 7 AM tomorrow morning. Showers should be exiting the area towards daybreak on Friday, with rain chances dropping to around 20-30%, mainly for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa for the rest of Friday morning. Rain will clear first from northeast Nebraska with some potential for fog development after midnight, hanging around through mid-morning on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Slight Risk that was over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa for Friday afternoon east and out of our area, but we still will have a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk as storms could redevelop along the remnant boundary Friday afternoon. We also have the upper-level trough moving in Friday evening, ramping up potential for additional showers and storms across northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Friday evening. With these systems, shear will be much weaker so the possibility for storms to organize themselves and become severe is lower. Despite the lower severe potential, saturated ground and rivers/creeks running high will lead to another chance for flash flooding Friday night. Over the weekend, the pattern dries out giving us a break from storms and allowing water to drain into our bigger rivers. Depending on just how much rain we get over the next couple of days, we could see main-stem rivers approach or rise over flood stage. Weather-wise, temperatures should be cooler on Saturday with highs in the low 80s. The upper-level ridge starts to push back inland Sunday into early next week, bringing back warmer temperatures starting Sunday and we`ll see the return of an active northwesterly flow pattern next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Strongest of thunderstorms have pushed east into western Iowa with SHRA and -TSRA expected to linger through about 09Z at KLNK and KOMA. Have added some BR to KOFK from 10Z to 14Z. Currently have visibility remaining in VFR category (5 miles) but that may certainly dip lower than that as cigs dip into MVFR category through about 17Z. Friday afternoon brings another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in their timing and location is too low to include in TAF issuance at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for NEZ012-015-017-018- 031>034-042>045-050>053. IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056-069.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Nicolaisen