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036
FXUS64 KOHX 142258
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
558 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Radar this afternoon shows fairly widespread light to moderate
rain and a few thunderstorms continue across the midstate. Latest
CAMs such as the HRRR show precipitation will gradually shift west
and south of our area through the evening into the early overnight
hours, and have adjusted pops somewhat based on this. Given the
expected decrease in precipitation with time over our Flood Watch
area and no additional flood issues anticipated, will go ahead
and let the watch expire as scheduled at 7pm. Overnight, cooler
and drier air will advect westward into our eastern counties with
temps/dewpoints falling into the upper 50s/low 60s. Given the wet
ground and moist low levels, some patchy fog will be possible and
added mention to grids/zones. Rest of forecast remains on track.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Yep. The remnants of Francine are still here. Her weakening upper
low sits just off to our southwest and it continues to pull plenty
of moisture into the area. Showers have been ongoing across our
southwest counties since early this morning and have dropped quite a
bit of rain. While we`ve only had reports of minor flooding, storm
totals nearing 8 inches have been recorded in southern Lawrenceburg
county. Light to moderate rain will continue for them and
surrounding communities for several more hours but I think their
rain rates should stay in check and not cause any further issues.
We`ll allow their Flood Watch to continue through 00Z. In addition
to that rain, areas along and east of I-24 have seen lots of sun
this morning. Because of that, instability growth is expected into
the afternoon and early evening hours. NBM doesn`t agree, but most
of the CAMs are suggesting late afternoon/early afternoon storm
development along and north of I-40. For these reasons, I`ve
increased PoP chances for this area through 03Z this evening. Rain
rates should be decent and there`s even a chance for a rumble of
thunder, but no severe and no flooding is expected.

I wanted to completely remove PoPs for tomorrow, but I don`t know if
I can just yet. Maybe the midnight shift can. Models are trending
drier and drier. An isolated storm is possible tomorrow afternoon at
this point. Thunder would be possible during the heat of the
afternoon, but no severe is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

By Monday, we should be done with Francine. Finally. Yes, she ended
up being a bummer for most of Middle TN, but those that got the rain
definitely needed it. Here`s the stinky part: those who didn`t? The
crunchy grass is just gonna get worse. I don`t have PoPs in the
forecast through the rest of the week and right now, even next
weekend`s rain chances aren`t looking great. The big story will be
this tropical/sub-tropical system off the east coast and whether or
not it will provide us any rain next weekend. In any event,
temperatures should hover around normal for this time of the year,
so we won`t be too hot or cold over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Most of the Francine remnants will stay southwest of our
terminals leaving conditions mostly VFR. BNA/MQY/CKV will be
impacted by scattered showers and storms from 20Z-02Z including
brief heavy downpours. Tempo periods have been included for most
likely times based on HREF. Otherwise, winds will be mainly east
at 5-10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      67  88  65  87 /  60  20  10  10
Clarksville    65  87  63  87 /  60  20  10  10
Crossville     59  83  56  81 /  30  20   0  10
Columbia       65  86  62  86 /  60  40  10  10
Cookeville     62  85  60  82 /  60  10   0  10
Jamestown      61  84  58  81 /  10  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   64  84  61  85 /  60  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   65  88  63  87 /  60  30  10  10
Waverly        65  85  63  87 /  70  30  10  10
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Giles-Lawrence-Wayne.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13