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054
FXUS61 KOKX 120027
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
827 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in tonight and remain in control
through Thursday. A cold front will approach on Friday and
move through during the afternoon and at night. High pressure
will then follow for the weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Weak shortwave lift is interacting with just enough moisture to
produce a few light showers around NYC. Expecting this to
continue through the evening as the shortwave lift moves
through, passing over lower level moisture convergence
courtesy of a sea breeze. Shower threat will end by midnight
with dry conditions and diminishing clouds as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures once again will
be quite comfortable tonight with lows in the 50s in outlying
areas, and lower/mid 60s in the urban metro area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The closed low trough meandering over New England the last
several days finally lifts out into mid week as surface high
pressure remains nearby.

Very subtle shortwave passing through on Wednesday could
instigate isolated showers during the afternoon, but once again
most should remain entirely dry. Otherwise, deep westerly flow
will allow slight modification of the air mass on Wednesday, and
with a well-mixed BL, temperatures climb a few degrees higher
than recent days, with most topping out in the upper 70s/lower
80s. Dew points remaining in the 50s should complement this
well, maintaining a comfortable feel to the air. The weak
pressure field and light flow should allow for relatively quick
sea breeze formation and keep coastal areas a bit cooler.

Center of the surface high shifts offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday, and the resultant SW flow will start to advect in
warmer, moister air. Dry conditions continue though, as
temperatures climb on Thursday, likely approaching 90 in urban
northeast NJ, and 80s pretty much everywhere but the immediate
coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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**Key Points**

* Above normal temperatures for most of the period.

* Showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday and Friday night, some
  potentially strong to severe.

A shortwave will help sharpen a longwave trough on Friday as both
approach from the west, supporting a cold front pushing through the
forecast area. Timing for the frontal passage still looks to be
during the afternoon to evening hours. Have gone slightly above NBM
PoPs, with showers likely for the entire forecast area, mainly in
the afternoon and evening. Models have nudged SBCAPEs upward from 24
hours ago, with some areas above 2000 J/kg. The approaching
shortwave, although not passing through until nighttime, will still
promote some steepening of mid-level lapse rates. Additionally,
there`s now increasing model support for enhanced synoptic lift via
upper jet streak positioning. Considering all of this with progged
35-45kt 0-6km shear, there could be strong to severe thunderstorms
during this event. The timing of the shortwave and jet streak lift
might be a little too late to efficiently enhance convection, but
there should at least be a decent amount of SBCAPE for the cold
front to work with given the anticipated temperatures and dewpoints.
850mb temps rise to around 16-17C, yielding highs in the lower 90s
in the typically warmest spots, with mid/upper 80s for most
other locations. Dewpoints should be generally in the mid 60s.

High pressure builds in from the NW during the weekend with dry
conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High temperatures
still above normal on Saturday, then closer to normal on Sunday
as low level winds and stronger subsidence help limit the mixing
depth. High pressure hangs on for another dry day for Monday
with temperatures back on the rise. Next chance of showers and
thunderstorms follow for Monday night and Tuesday between
potential convection riding over an upper ridge to the west and
maybe a surface trough nearby the area as well. Above normal
temperatures continue for Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak surface trough will remain across the area through
Wednesday.

BKN VFR cigs during this time, generally 6-8 kft AGL.

Winds should go light this evening, then become light N late
tonight into early Wed morning. Coastal sea breezes should
develop by late morning, with speeds 10 kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower possible this aft/eve. Timing of seabreeze
through Wednesday may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MVFR possible in showers/tstms Friday afternoon and night,
otherwise VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Fairly tranquil conditions should persist on the coastal waters
through Thu, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. While sub-
advisory conditions should continue through the rest of the
forecast period, wind gusts and seas on the ocean may come
close to reaching advisory criteria on Friday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon may produce 1/2 to 1
of rain, with locally higher amts possible. Impacts will most
likely be limited to minor urbanized/poor drainage flooding
due to the progressive nature of storm cells.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A low risk of rip current development is expected on all ocean
beaches for Wednesday. A moderate risk is anticipated
for Thursday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...