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369
FXUS65 KPIH 181928 CCA
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
127 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wed Night. Showers and thunderstorms
over the northern zones, north of a line from Galena Summit to
Dubois, are expected tonight through midnight tonight, but after
this, the instability and the troughing that generated the storm
of the last three days will depart to the east. An extended period
of dry conditions starts Wed/Juneteenth with very little cloud
and the strong sunshine as we approach the solstice. This means a
fast warm up, with temperatures today struggling into the 60s for
the Snake River plain and on Juneteenth warming into the upper
60s in the north to middle 70s in the eastern Magic Valley. In the
mountains temperatures warm from the 40s and 50s to the 50s and
60s, so about a ten degree warm-up.

More significantly, the overnight lows last night were close to
Freeze Warning criteria, and the chilly temperatures continue,
although not to that magnitude. Have issued another Frost Advisory
for tonight, with all but the Burley area of the eastern Magic
Valley under a threat of temperatures in the zone for frost.

Wind will become more terrain-driven, with northeast to east wind
in the valley in the late night and morning hours, shifting to a
gusty and breezy southwest to west wind for Wed afternoon. Messick

.LONG TERM....Thursday through Tuesday. Will see southwest flow
aloft continue to warm temperatures on Thursday with highs in low
elevations well into the 80s and back to normal or slightly above
normal after several cool days. The long term is expected to be a
dry period other than isolated to scattered showers on Friday
mainly in the central mountains and eastern highlands. Saturday
through next Tuesday have no precipitation in the forecast. It is
going to be very warm with above normal temperatures expected into
early next week. Highs remain in the 70s mountains and 80s
valleys on Friday then expect highs to shoot into the 90s low
elevations over the weekend and 80s mountains. Model blends have
some cooling Monday and Tuesday but still hot conditions with
highs in the 80s to near 90 valleys and 70s to lower 80s
mountains. Generally light winds expected through Saturday with
breezier conditions expected Sunday into Tuesday with a stronger
zonal flow aloft setting up. GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 
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Will have one more night of extremely cold
temperatures with lows in the 20s and 30s tonight.  Will see a
significant warming trend Wednesday through Sunday with highs
returning to well above normal by Friday and hot conditions expected
over the weekend.  So it will be back to normal summer conditions
with low humidity in the teens to 20s percent wise for minimum
values and poor night time recovery.  It appears Friday afternoon
will be the only chance for precipitation with only isolated showers
and thunderstorms expected mainly in zones 475, 476, 411 and 413. No
wetting rains are expected. Overall though it will be an extended
very dry period all the way into early next week. Light winds
expected until Sunday when breezier conditions may set in Sunday
through Tuesday.  GK
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&&

.AVIATION...
Will have VFR conditions with mainly light winds through Wednesday.
May see showers vicinity at least near DIJ this afternoon as only
precipitation the next two days.
GK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Teton River at Driggs continues barely below action
stage, and the Warning has been downgraded to a Flood Advisory for
the next 24 hours or so. A maddeningly slow drop in river stage
continues, and will finally be more significantly dropping
Wed/Juneteenth afternoon.


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051>054.

&&

$$