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585
FXUS65 KPIH 200948
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
348 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
Dry, mostly sunny/clear, low-to-no-impact weather is forecast to
continue into this weekend as several low pressure systems affecting
the western US all avoid our area. Winds may be a bit breezy this
afternoon especially over the Craters of the Moon region, gusting
to 30 MPH. High temperatures each day will hold steady in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Forecast confidence is high. Looks like
the next even small chance of showers holds off until Sunday night
or Monday. 01

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
There is still an expectation for a feature to drop southeast
across East Idaho Sunday night into Monday, leading to very light
precipitation chances across higher elevations. What happens
beyond that differs among the models and clusters. General
consensus is that an amplified ridge will form across the western
states and shift east, but some solutions want to either wobble
the Monday low back across the Great Basin, or develop a blocking
pattern across the Great Basin/Four Corners region. This does
affect how the ridge behaves moving forward through the week.
Blends/ensemble cluster means gradually introduce a more southwest
flow late in the week, but still keeping the dry influence of the
ridge over East Idaho. This does bring temperatures back up into
the 70s for most of the week, which is about seasonal normals for
this time of year. DMH
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&&

.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions continue, though there is still a very low
probability for pockets of MVFR stratus/fog this morning,
particularly for KDIJ. Winds increase this afternoon, generally
10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt for the Snake Plain terminals
KIDA/KPIH, but should generally decrease again to around/below
10kts after sunset. VFR conditions expected at all sites
overnight. DMH
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry conditions continue with a slight warming trend. A weak
system will pass through the region today, bringing an uptick in
winds to higher elevations and the Snake Plain. Wind gusts will
approach but are not expected to exceed critical thresholds while
daytime humidities remain high. The next system arrives for East
Idaho Sunday night into Monday. There is a potential for very
light shower activity along the Divide and higher elevations along
the Wyoming border, but precipitation amounts remain extremely
light. A ridge of high pressure redevelops and slides east through
the western states through mid week. There is some potential for
a Pacific system to push the ridge east by the end of next week,
but details remain uncertain at this time. In the meantime,
continue to expect a slow warming trend, with temperatures
approaching seasonal normals by mid week next week. DMH
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&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$