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313
FXUS65 KPIH 221930
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
130 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
Dry, low-impact weather is forecast to continue across southeast
Idaho over the next several days, with high pressure largely in
control. Overall forecast confidence is high. A shortwave trough
will brush across the northern Rockies tonight into Monday morning,
but the only local impact from this feature will be an increase in
mid- to high-level clouds as precipitation chances will remain to
the north of our forecast area. High temperatures today and Monday
will hold steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 01

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
By Tuesday, high pressure is building in over the area once again
and this will help warm up our temperatures and keep us dry. For
most, highs reach the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, but the NBM
does show a 20 to 30 percent chance for parts of the eastern Magic
Valley to reach 80 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. Even if we fall
just short of 80 then, more of us will make it there Wednesday
afternoon as we transition into southwest flow aloft to warm up
about 5 more degrees. The NBM shows a 95 to 100 percent chance of
most of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain reaching 80 degrees on
Wednesday, so I have high confidence in our current forecast highs
of low to mid 80s. After Wednesday, highs will hang out right
around the 80 degree mark for those of us in valley locations and
70s elsewhere as we are just barely influenced by weak troughing
passing to our north. This will put us into more zonal flow aloft
by next weekend, but it doesn`t look like we have much for
precipitation chances until the following week. AMM
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.AVIATION...
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With high pressure largely in control, overall forecast confidence
is high in VFR conditions with light winds of 10kts or less over the
next several days, with really no major impacts for aviation. A
shortwave trough brushing across the northern Rockies is expected to
result in a period of FEW to SCT high clouds tonight into Monday,
but precipitation chances will remain north of our forecast area and
away from all southeast Idaho terminals. Our local airmass is
also dry enough to preclude any fog concerns. 01
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Weak troughing moves through much of Idaho today and we slowly
transition into northwest flow aloft late tonight into early
Monday morning. This will do little more than bring some
increasing cloud cover late tonight and through Monday and a less
than 10 percent chance of an isolated shower up near Island Park.
Temperatures will hold steady in the low 70s today and tomorrow
before our warming trend begins Tuesday. It`s not a particularly
strong warm up, but it will get us into the low and mid 80s by
Wednesday afternoon. As we warm, relative humidities will drop
into the upper teens to mid 20s for Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. Highs will stay right around 80 degrees for the second
half of the week. It doesn`t look very breezy during this time
frame, with afternoon gusts topping out at 20 to 25 mph, so we
will lack the overlap in low RHs and wind gusts needed to see any
critical fire weather conditions this week. And we stay dry all
week long, too. AMM
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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$