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315
FXUS65 KPIH 230843
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
243 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Things are looking rather quiet over the week ahead across eastern
Idaho. In fact, the current forecast has no precip chances
ANYWHERE in the forecast for the upcoming week. That`s rather
unusual for late September but here we are. A shortwave is moving
well to our north and east this morning across central and eastern
Montana and this feature will have little impact on the region.
An upper level ridge will quickly move overhead tomorrow and its
effects will linger into the day Wednesday. Temperatures will
climb above climo when this does with mid to upper 70s likely in
the valleys on Tuesday increasing to low to mid 80s by the time we
get into Wednesday.

As the high departs to the east, the upper level jet looks to
become more active across the Pacific NW and western Canada but
too far north of our area to have much of an impact on sensible
weather. H5 heights will lower some after the ridge departs so we
should see a slight lowering of temperatures but they`ll still be
on the warmer side of normal by a few degrees each day which
equates to upper 70s to around 80 in the lower valleys through the
weekend. As we get into late Sunday and into Monday, seeing some
hints in the model guidance on perhaps a slight dip in the jet
allowing an upper level trough to exert some influence on our
region. Just how much of a dip remains to be but this feature
could bring a bit of a cooldown and maybe some precip depending on
how things play out. Considering this is a week away, a lot can
(and likely will) change. McKaughan
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.AVIATION...
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A few high clouds are the only aviation concern today. Winds will
once again be light, 10 kts or less, through the period. As high
pressure moves over the area late tonight and into Tuesday. Clouds
will be even harder to come by with winds remaining light. In
short, expect VFR conditions to prevail for awhile. McKaughan
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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An upper level ridge is strengthening over northern Great Basin
after a very weak trough passed through southern Canada and
Montana. This will bring cooler afternoon highs in the northern
half, but the southern half of the forecast area is actually
warming a little today, especially in the Southern Idaho dispatch
center AoR. Meanwhile,humidity readings should be higher in the
afternoon compared to Sun. From here through Wed, warming and
drying will be the rule as the high continues to sit. On Wed
Night/Thu there is a breakdown of this ridge as a low moves
onshore from the WA-OR coast. This will cool things down and raise
humidity, but little else. There is still no precipitation in
sight through next Mon afternoon. Messick
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&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$