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503
FXUS61 KRLX 291745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and increasingly humid, with severe storms and heavy rain
possible today into tonight. A cold front brings more rain and
storms Sunday. Dry to start the week, becoming hot by Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Saturday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible this afternoon
  and evening.

A few showers and storms are possible early this afternoon, then a
more organized line of convection is expected to arrive by late
afternoon and trudge east across the area through the evening while
a shortwave passes overhead and a cold front approaches from the
west.

Moisture will feed into the area out ahead of the front, allowing
precipitable water values to climb to 2 to 2.25 inches by the end of
the day. Such high moisture should support heavy downpours which
could create a few localized flooding issues in poor drainage or low-
lying areas. Along with moisture, daytime heating will contribute to
increasingly unstable conditions. During the late afternoon and
evening, moderate to strong instability is expected to support
isolated to scattered severe storms. The environment will be most
favorable for a damaging wind threat; however, there is also a low
(2-4%) risk for tornadoes in the northern third of the CWA.

At least a few showers and storms may persist overnight amid warm
and muggy conditions. On Sunday, more showers and storms form
ahead of and along the cold front -- which is expected to reach
southeast Ohio in the morning and then sweep east across the
CWA. A stronger storm or two could be possible during the
frontal passage, then precipitation should gradually taper off
from west to east behind the front during the latter half of the
day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The beginning of the new calendar month opens up with pleasant
weather in the wake of the weekend frontal passage. A brief
reprieve from the overbearing temperatures and dry weather will
arrive in the form of high pressure spreading over the Ohio
Valley. Afternoon highs are progged to only reach the upper 70s
in the central lowlands and the 60s along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging will continue to support dry weather on
Tuesday, with temperatures returning to seasonable for this time
of year.Pressure height rises will translate into a rise in
temperatures beginning on Tuesday and heading into highs
extending into the 90s across the lower elevations. The ridge
begins to flatten and sink down into the southern half of the
country on the 4th of July, making way for a frontal boundary
and its associated line of showers and storms. Models remain on
track with this boundary struggling to surpass the forecast area
on Thursday, becoming stationary over the area for the end of
the week. Maintained central guidance chance to likely POPs for
this timeframe, and held onto convection even during the
overnight hours due to the persnickety front hanging about
during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are currently present across the majority of the
area, though scattered showers have begun to develop. Showers
and storms are expected to become more widespread later this
afternoon into the evening, with temporary restrictions to
visibility likely to occur in heavy rain. Ceilings could also
dip down to MVFR in today`s storms.

A few showers and storms may persist through the night and
ceilings are expected to gradually lower into the early morning
hours as a cold front approaches. Ceilings should deteriorate
to MVFR at most locations, with IFR possible along the
mountains. Sub-VFR conditions remain possible as rain and storms
accompany the frontal passage on Sunday, then gradual
improvement should occur from west to east in its wake.

Gusty southwest flow is expected to become variable this
evening, with strong winds possibility in storms that develop
later today into tonight. On Sunday, winds are expected to be
west to southwest ahead of the front, then turn northwesterly
once it moves through.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of storms today and tonight may
vary from the forecast. Flight category could temporarily lower
more than anticipated within storms or heavy rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Sunday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB