-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
657
FXUS61 KRNK 162338
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Sunday...

The biggest adjustment to the forecast heading through the early
evening is a greater expanse of cloud cover over mainly portions
of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina than earlier
advertised. We still expect a general trend towards less cloud
cover as the night progresses. However southern and southwestern
sections are expected to maintain the greatest coverage, and
lingering isolated showers through the overnight.


As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

   - Mountain scattered showers/storms Monday, otherwise warming
     up

Not too bad for Father`s Day but a tick up in the humidity.

Moisture in the low levels continues to track across the
southern Blue Ridge into the southside VA, with some moisture
convergence along the escarpment to generate showers, that have
shifted northeast into the NW NC piedmont but very little
coverage.

Will still likely see some pop up coverage this afternoon across
far southwest VA into NW NC away from the influence of the high
where better theta-e ridging and low level convergence occurs.

Tonight, models have any showers fading but southeast flow
persists so kept some low chance of showers in over far
southwest VA into the NC mountains/foothill.

The 5h ridge expected to stay overhead Monday. Models showing
more coverage over the mountains and moreso toward the TN
Valley as weak upper vort combined with heating/moisture allow
for some storm development. Confidence is not very high on
coverage Monday but have upped pops to 30-40 from the Alleghanys
to the NC Blue Ridge and points west with little to no chances
east of the Blue Ridge of VA. Any storms that fire up will
propagate west to east but flow is weak, so with pwats up to
1.5" storms could bring some heavy downpours.

Dewpoints also increase Monday so heat indices start to get up
into the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains with highs
ranging from near 90 east to upper 70s to mid 80s mountains. Any
cloud cover from the storms and residual low level clouds
tonight could limit the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend to ensue.

2) Rain chances will vanish by the middle of the week.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms should retreat westward and fade
after sunset, which will allow the remainder of Monday night to
become dry. Surface high pressure should remain off the East Coast
to provide a southeasterly breeze across the Mid Atlantic during
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge will
build across the Northeast with 500 mb heights peaking at an
impressive 600 dam just off the coasts of New Jersey and New York.
This ridge should suppress any rain chances by the middle of the
week, and the plentiful sunshine should allow high temperatures to
rise into the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the first heat wave of 2024 to arrive just
in time for the summer solstice.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms may return by the weekend.

The summer solstice starts at 4:51 PM EDT on Thursday, and it will
definitely feel like summer has arrived as the first heat wave of
2024 takes place across the Mid Atlantic. An anomalously strong
upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and dry through Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures should soar into the mid 80s to the mid 90s
by the end of the week. While heat indices appear to stay below 100
degrees, plans should still be made to have plenty of fluids,
sunscreen, and ways to stay cool if preparing for any outdoor
activities during the latter half of the week.

By Saturday, the models are indicating an upper level trough should
enter the northern Plains. The upper level ridge over the Mid
Atlantic would slowly weaken as the aforementioned trough approaches
the Great Lakes by Sunday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
start to tick upward in the mountains during Saturday afternoon and
could increase further by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures may begin
to drop slightly as the weekend progresses due to increasing clouds
and the potential for afternoon convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

The region currently is experiencing more cloud cover than not,
with the best coverage over southwest Virginia and northwest
North Carolina. Much of the cloud cover over along and southwest
of a KMKJ-KHLX-KMWK line is experiencing MVFR ceilings with a
few spots in the North Carolina mountains seeing LIFR/IFR
ceilings. Additionally, some patchy light rain was accompanying
the lowest of the ceilings. As the night progresses, there will
be a general trend of decreasing cloud cover along the edge of
the forecast area. However, with a continued light southeast
flow helping to pool moisture into the eastern flanks of the
Appalachians, these regions are expected to continue with near
status quo of cloud cover. Patchy fog will be possible for a few
hours heading into daybreak Monday. For Monday, we will see
gradual improvement in cloud height categories and a general
trend in decreasing clouds in general. However, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially over
the mountains, from mid-day through the afternoon hours.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside for some
morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are
expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/WP