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681
FXUS61 KRNK 240643
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
243 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front cross through the area today. Drier weather returns
through Tuesday with temperatures and humidity gradually
increasing again by Wednesday. The next chance of showers and
thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon, with heat
returning for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Frontal passage today with a few lingering showers.

2) Lower humidity behind the front.

Few areas of showers still ongoing this morning, some occasional
thunder also possible. Front is still to the west across West
Virginia and Kentucky, but is making eastward progress. Front
will cross the area today and a drier airmass arrives bringing
lower dew points and slightly lower temperatures.

Showers will taper off later this morning and skies will
gradually clear throughout the day. A few upslope showers across
southeast West Virginia could linger to midday.

Will have an uptick in winds today, from the northwest,
possibly gusting into the 20mph range at times. Highs this
afternoon slightly above normal.

Tonight, high pressure builds overhead. Clearing skies and lower
dew points should allow upper/mid 50s for the mountains and
lower 60s in the east.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Tuesday.

2) The heat and humidity returns on Wednesday, and a chance of
showers and thunderstorms resumes for Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure will provide dry conditions across the Mid Atlantic on
Tuesday. While high temperatures should vary from the upper 70s in
the highest elevations to the lower 90s in the Piedmont, dewpoints
should mainly be in the 50s to make it feel more comfortable
compared to the last several days. High pressure will head offshore
on Tuesday night, and a southwest flow will advect more moisture to
push dewpoints into the 60s by Wednesday morning and set up another
hot and humid day. Temperatures should soar into the mid 80s to the
mid 90s by Wednesday afternoon, and the heat index should approach
100 degrees along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg.

With the increase in heat and humidity on Wednesday, the added
instability and an approaching cold front in the Ohio River Valley
should spark showers and thunderstorms. High-resolution models
depict a line of convection developing along the Blue Ridge on
Wednesday afternoon and moving eastward into the Piedmont where a
lee trough will be located. Meanwhile, another line of storms will
enter West Virginia just ahead of the cold front by Wednesday
evening. Similar to the frontal passage from last weekend, the
storms in West Virginia will weaken by the time they reach the
Interstate 81 corridor on Wednesday night. The cold front should
cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, and drier air will follow after
the frontal passage. However, high pressure should pass to the north
on Thursday night, so the flow will turn towards the east and advect
moisture back towards the Blue Ridge.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures staying above normal
throughout the upcoming weekend.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue each
afternoon, but the highest odds appear to be on Sunday.

An easterly breeze will allow moisture to converge along the Blue
Ridge on Friday, and orographical lift could spark a few showers and
thunderstorms along the southern Blue Ridge by Friday afternoon. The
flow should turn towards the south on Saturday in response to an
approaching cold front reaching the Ohio River Valley, and the
increase in warm air advection and synoptic lift should trigger more
afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, the
highest odds and greatest coverage of storms appears to be on Sunday
when the cold front approaches the Appalachian Mountains. While it
is too soon to tell how strong the storms may become, most of the
rainfall would be beneficial at this point given how dry it has been
overall across the Mid Atlantic with many locations at least a
couple inches below normal in precipitation for June.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Generally VFR across the region, except for pockets of MVFR
across the higher terrain of West Virginia and southwest
Virginia.

Areas of showers and few embedded thunderstorms still ongoing,
which are associated with a front passing through the region
today. Showers/storms too isolated to mention in TAFs, but
should see this activity dwindle by daybreak.

Winds increase today behind the front. Gusty northwest winds up
to 20kts are possible across the area. A few higher gusts
possible in the mountains. VFR is expected through the remainder
of the TAF period, but could see some OVC/BKN cigs across West
Virginia into early afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions expected through much of the week, with the only
exception being areas of valley fog in the early morning hours,
and with any storms Wed-Fri.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG