Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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856 FXUS63 KSGF 142305 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low-end thunderstorm chances today and Saturday (15-30%). - Heat and humidity will continue through much of next week. - Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday and onward (15-30%) thanks to the hot and humid air mass. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continue to show main upper jet and storm track positioned over the northern quarter of the CONUS with a trough over the Great Lakes region, and upper ridge building into the plains and mid Mississippi valley and an upper level shortwave undercutting the ridge over the four corners region. A surface front has pushed south into far southern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s and surface based CAPES in the 3500-4500 j/kg range. A cumulus field has developed in this area over the past couple of hours. Rest of the afternoon and tonight: Some of the convective allowing models(CAMS) are developing some isolated / widely scattered thunderstorms across mainly our southwest CWA this afternoon and evening. This would mainly be along/ahead of the cold front which only covers a handful of counties in our southwest CWA. Most areas will remain dry. This area will also have heat index values this afternoon and early evening in the upper 90s to around 103. Additional convection is expected to develop in the central and high plains ahead of that upper shortwave currently in the 4 corners region, eventually forming a thunderstorm complex and shifting east. This activity may approach our northwest CWA towards morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s in the east to the low 70s in the west.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday: Most of the activity with the thunderstorm complex will lift northeast across northern Missouri, but the southern edge of this activity may affect our central MO counties. Outflow from this complex may aid in developing scattered afternoon and evening convection over the area (15-25%). Storms that develop are not expected to become severe. Highs should climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values from the mid 90s to around 103. Sunday through Thursday: Upper level ridge axis will be to our east with the main storm track expected to our northwest along with a frontal boundary well to the north and west of the area. Generally dry with warm and humid conditions are expected to continue over the area. We can`t rule out some isolated convection in the afternoon/evening on a daily basis due to instability over the area. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day with heat index values from the low 90s to around 100.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions should persist through the entire TAF period, with scattered cumulus clouds seen on satellite imagery. There is a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, however confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Any storm that does develop will be shortlived. Otherwise, surface winds between 5-10 knots will shift to a south- southeasterly direction by Saturday morning.
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&& .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Melto