-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
093
FXUS63 KSGF 241041
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM
  Tuesday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat
  Index values between 100 to 110 today and 100-105 Tuesday.

- Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s through
  this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into
  the 100s.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (40 to 70%) late Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Surface observations show early morning temperatures remaining
between the upper 60s to upper 70s (warmer west of Hwy 65),
providing little to no relief from the heat the region is
experiencing. A frontal boundary is currently draped just south
of the area over northern Arkansas, and is progged to lift back
into the CWA later this morning/afternoon in the form of a warm
front. This will usher in a warmer airmass, leading to the
hottest day in the forecast period.

Synoptically, an upper level High remains situated to our
south-southwest, with 850mb temperatures climbing between 23-25
C later today. This, along with generally clear skies and warm
air advection will lead to afternoon high temperatures between
93-99 degrees, with the hotter end of that range along/west of
Highway 65. NBM probability of maximum temperatures >=100
degrees shows a 60-70% chance for Joplin and surrounding areas.

Regardless of if areas reach 100 degrees or not, it`s going to
be excessively hot. High humidity coupled with the hot
temperatures will bring heat index values between 100-108
(again, hotter west of Highway 65). With the entire area seeing
little relief from overnight temperatures and much of the area
approaching and/or reaching Heat Advisory criteria, the Heat
Advisory remains in effect from noon until 8 PM today. Make sure
to take the appropriate precautions to stay safe from the heat.
Drink plenty of water, stay in air conditioned areas if
possible, and remember to check on those who may be more
vulnerable to heat related illnesses.

Overnight lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 70s east of
Highway 65, and the mid to upper 70s west of Highway 65 once
again offering little to no relief from the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat Advisory Tuesday:
With the little relief offered overnight and high temperatures
once again in the mid 90s leading to heat indices between
100-105, decided to extend the Heat Advisory through Tuesday
until 8 PM. NWS experimental HeatRisk index shows the majority
of the CWA experiencing Major (3 of 4) risk of heat-related
impacts, which can affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. Some localized pockets of Extreme
risk (4 of 4) exist, mainly in areas west of Highway 65. That
being said, stay vigilant in your heat-safety efforts, staying
cool and hydrated.

Scattered Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday:
A subtle shortwave is progged to push through the area on
Tuesday, with a stronger, more potent shortwave pushing through
the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday
afternoon will see a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms,
however the better chances will be overnight as the stronger
shortwave drags an associated cold front south through the area.
Showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the front,
dropping south with the frontal passage. This will lead to a
40-70% chance of these showers/storms, primarily between
midnight and 7 AM, with lingering 30-60% chances south of I-44
through the morning/early afternoon.

SPC has highlighted a majority of the CWA in a Marginal (1 of 5)
risk for severe thunderstorms during this timeframe. The better
chance of severe hazards lies to our north across parts of IA,
northern MO, and portions of the Great Lakes region where there
is a Slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather. There is still some
uncertainty in the southern extent of the stronger storms as
upper level flow becomes more limited. Mean MUCAPE values
overnight remain between ~750-1250 J/kg with shear around 20
knots, which will lead to more isolated storms (versus more
organized modes). That being said, isolated instances of hail up
to quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with
any of the stronger storms.

Heat Continues Through the Week:
Through the remainder of the week, the upper level high pressure
system will continue to play a major role in the hot
temperatures as the ridging pattern moves through the region.
After the cold front passes through the area Tuesday night,
Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly "cooler" (but still
hot), with high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and heat
indices in the upper 80s and ranging in the 90s.

As the upper level high returns to our south and the ridging
pattern builds back up, afternoon highs will return to the 90s
on Friday with heat indices in the upper 90s to 105. Some rain
chances may hinder Saturday/Sunday`s high temperatures (see next
section), however temperatures still look to stay in the upper
80s to low 90s, with the hotter end of that range near the MO/AR
border.

Next system arrives next weekend:
Models show an upper low progressing across the CONUS/Canadian
border towards the end of the week and into the weekend,
bringing another potent shortwave and associated surface cold
front into the area. Ensembles continue to show precipitation
becoming increasingly more likely over the weekend (currently
30-50% chances), however specific details still need to be
hashed out as we get closer to this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF
period as high pressure continues over the area. Southerly winds
will increase to 6-11 knots during the afternoon and evening
hours today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Price