Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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093 FXUS63 KSGF 241041 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 541 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM Tuesday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat Index values between 100 to 110 today and 100-105 Tuesday. - Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s through this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into the 100s. - Scattered thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with highest chances (40 to 70%) late Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Surface observations show early morning temperatures remaining between the upper 60s to upper 70s (warmer west of Hwy 65), providing little to no relief from the heat the region is experiencing. A frontal boundary is currently draped just south of the area over northern Arkansas, and is progged to lift back into the CWA later this morning/afternoon in the form of a warm front. This will usher in a warmer airmass, leading to the hottest day in the forecast period. Synoptically, an upper level High remains situated to our south-southwest, with 850mb temperatures climbing between 23-25 C later today. This, along with generally clear skies and warm air advection will lead to afternoon high temperatures between 93-99 degrees, with the hotter end of that range along/west of Highway 65. NBM probability of maximum temperatures >=100 degrees shows a 60-70% chance for Joplin and surrounding areas. Regardless of if areas reach 100 degrees or not, it`s going to be excessively hot. High humidity coupled with the hot temperatures will bring heat index values between 100-108 (again, hotter west of Highway 65). With the entire area seeing little relief from overnight temperatures and much of the area approaching and/or reaching Heat Advisory criteria, the Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon until 8 PM today. Make sure to take the appropriate precautions to stay safe from the heat. Drink plenty of water, stay in air conditioned areas if possible, and remember to check on those who may be more vulnerable to heat related illnesses. Overnight lows tonight will remain in the low to mid 70s east of Highway 65, and the mid to upper 70s west of Highway 65 once again offering little to no relief from the heat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heat Advisory Tuesday: With the little relief offered overnight and high temperatures once again in the mid 90s leading to heat indices between 100-105, decided to extend the Heat Advisory through Tuesday until 8 PM. NWS experimental HeatRisk index shows the majority of the CWA experiencing Major (3 of 4) risk of heat-related impacts, which can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some localized pockets of Extreme risk (4 of 4) exist, mainly in areas west of Highway 65. That being said, stay vigilant in your heat-safety efforts, staying cool and hydrated. Scattered Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday: A subtle shortwave is progged to push through the area on Tuesday, with a stronger, more potent shortwave pushing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon will see a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the better chances will be overnight as the stronger shortwave drags an associated cold front south through the area. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop ahead of the front, dropping south with the frontal passage. This will lead to a 40-70% chance of these showers/storms, primarily between midnight and 7 AM, with lingering 30-60% chances south of I-44 through the morning/early afternoon. SPC has highlighted a majority of the CWA in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms during this timeframe. The better chance of severe hazards lies to our north across parts of IA, northern MO, and portions of the Great Lakes region where there is a Slight risk (2 of 5) of severe weather. There is still some uncertainty in the southern extent of the stronger storms as upper level flow becomes more limited. Mean MUCAPE values overnight remain between ~750-1250 J/kg with shear around 20 knots, which will lead to more isolated storms (versus more organized modes). That being said, isolated instances of hail up to quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with any of the stronger storms. Heat Continues Through the Week: Through the remainder of the week, the upper level high pressure system will continue to play a major role in the hot temperatures as the ridging pattern moves through the region. After the cold front passes through the area Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly "cooler" (but still hot), with high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and heat indices in the upper 80s and ranging in the 90s. As the upper level high returns to our south and the ridging pattern builds back up, afternoon highs will return to the 90s on Friday with heat indices in the upper 90s to 105. Some rain chances may hinder Saturday/Sunday`s high temperatures (see next section), however temperatures still look to stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the hotter end of that range near the MO/AR border. Next system arrives next weekend: Models show an upper low progressing across the CONUS/Canadian border towards the end of the week and into the weekend, bringing another potent shortwave and associated surface cold front into the area. Ensembles continue to show precipitation becoming increasingly more likely over the weekend (currently 30-50% chances), however specific details still need to be hashed out as we get closer to this timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF period as high pressure continues over the area. Southerly winds will increase to 6-11 knots during the afternoon and evening hours today.
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&& .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 24: KSGF: 99/1988 KJLN: 100/1954 KVIH: 99/1901 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 25: KSGF: 76/1952 June 26: KSGF: 76/1937 June 29: KSGF: 80/1936 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto CLIMATE...Price