Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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742 FXUS63 KSGF 182025 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions today with southerly wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, especially west of Highway 65, weakening tonight. - 15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and over west Missouri Wednesday. - Heat and humidity to continue this week. - Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the rest of June. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough over the western U.S. by the Rocky Mountains, with a ridge over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient is causing S to SSE winds of 15-20 mph across western and north- central MO, gusting up to 30 mph. Hot and humid conditions prevail, with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s with the exception of the SE portions of our CWA, where temps are around 80 due to heavier cloud cover, and dewpoints in the high 60s and low 70s. For the rest of the day, there is a 15-30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Showers, if they occur at all, are most likely to form east of Highway 65 in the eastern Ozarks. Precipitable water vapor ranges from 1.5-2" across the region, so hazards associated with any storms that form are locally heavy rainfall and lightning. Because of the storm potential and greater cloud cover in the SE, high temperatures in the SE will reach the mid-80s, while the rest of the CWA climbs to around 90. Low temperatures will drop to 65-70 F tonight. As the surface pressure gradient over MO weakens, so too will the gusty winds, decreasing to 5-10 mph. Wednesday paints a similar picture to today, namely hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s, and dewpoint temps in the high 60s. Low (10-20%) probabilities of precipitation exist across the CWA. A cold front is forecast to pass through central NE, north-central KS, and northern MO. The southern edge of this front may kiss our northern counties late in the day. Thunderstorms and showers associated with this front are expected to stay to the north and west of our area, but some residual showers are possible in the western part of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Model guidance consistently builds a strong ridge over the central and eastern U.S. This unfortunately gives us no reprieve from hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures in the low to mid-90s through Tuesday. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 Day Outlooks continue to signal above average temperatures (50-60% chances), so the heat is unlikely to leave us anytime soon. Our best chances of slight relief in the long term could potentially come on Sunday. Models seem to be latching onto the idea of a shortwave trough developing Friday night/Saturday morning in the northwest U.S., reaching into the southern Canadian provinces. This shortwave trough would flatten out the aforementioned ridge, allowing a cold front to move into our CWA, which will bring chances of more widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chances at the moment). Thus, any relief from warmth would be short-lived, if the front can make it this far south, with temperatures in the upper 80s. Remember to practice heat safety from the end of this week into the weekend, as heat indices will be consistently between 95-100 F. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A cumulus field of mid-level clouds is currently advancing northward. From 19z-01z, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-20% chances) at BBG and SGF, although most precipitation should stay east of Highway 65. After this time period chances of showers diminish and mid-level cumulus clouds give way to clearer skies. Thus, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds of 15-25 knots will begin to diminish after 00z, reaching 5-10 knots by very late tonight/early tomorrow morning as a surface pressure gradient over Missouri weakens. && .CLIMATE...
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Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 22: KSGF: 96/2016 KVIH: 98/1901 June 23: KJLN: 98/2009 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 18: KSGF: 74/2018 June 23: KSGF: 77/2015 June 24: KSGF: 77/1934
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&& .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kenny LONG TERM...Kenny AVIATION...Kenny CLIMATE...Kenny