-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
238
FXUS63 KSGF 131855
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-  Heat and humidity that started today will continue into much
   of next week.

-  Low-end thunderstorm chances tonight and Friday (15-30%) as
   a front sags south into the area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper level shortwave tracking
east out of the upper Mississippi valley region into the Great
Lakes. An upper level ridge over New Mexico and west Texas
extended into the central plains. An upper level low was pushing
east into the southern California coast. The main upper level
flow remains planted along the U.S. Canadian border. Lower in
the atmosphere, a surface front was bisecting Iowa from east
central Iowa and extended southwest into northwest Kansas.
Moisture continues to pool along the front with instability
increasing and this will be the focus for afternoon strong to
severe convection north of our area. Temperatures across our
area were in the low to mid 80s with heat index values early
this afternoon in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Tonight: Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon to
our north over northern Missouri ahead of the front, eventually
forming into a complex of thunderstorms and shifting south into
our northern CWA(15-30% chance) in the mid to late evening and
overnight. Most of the CAMS prognosis have the convection
eroding with time overnight as it pushes further south into a
less favorable atmosphere for maintaining convection. The main
dividing line for these diminishing pops look to be near the
I-44 corridor with little to no precipitation chances over
southern Missouri. Lows tonight will be warm in the mid 60s to
low 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday: Most if not all of the convection should end by early
Friday morning and the front sinking south into southern
Missouri. As we heat back up during the day and become unstable,
the front may be the focus for renewed convection, but should
remain fairly scattered or isolated (15-25%). Severe storms are
not expected with fairly weak shear over the area. Any storms
that develop should diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Friday night: An upper level wave track into the plains with a
chance of more organized thunderstorms and possibly our western
CWA on the receiving and diminishing stage of these
thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Believe
most areas should remain dry.

Saturday-Sunday: Main part of the upper wave will track north
of the area. Upper ridge axis will shift east of the area but we
should still remain warm and humid over the area given the warm
temperatures aloft between 850mb and 700 mb which will also
limit our thunderstorm coverage.

Heat continuing into next week: Upper ridging will begin to
build back to the west over the lower 2/3 of the CONUS
throughout the week with the heat and humidity expected to
continue through much of next week. Daily highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s and heat index values from the mid 90s to
around 102. Low end rain chances with the afternoon instability
will be possible(10-20%)
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

High confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through most of
the TAF period at all sites. A 15-30% chance of weak remnant
showers, some of which may have thunder, may reach SGF and JLN.
Model guidance remains divided as to how far south these storms
will go, although most leave precipitation north of I-44. Thus,
a PROB30 group was used for SGF and JLN. SW winds of 8-12 knots
will begin to weaken around 2z, and begin to turn N from
14-18z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 16:
KSGF: 97/1952
KJLN: 95/2016


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15:
KSGF: 74/2022

June 16:
KSGF: 75/2022

June 17:
KSGF: 76/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Price