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628
FXUS63 KSGF 172245
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat and humidity will continue through today, then return
   late this week.

-  15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and
   thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and Tuesday.

-  Breezy conditions Tuesday with southerly wind gusts up to
   25-30 mph, especially west of Highway 65.

-  Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
   rest of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows weak upper-level flow over our
region as a longwave trough sits over the NW CONUS. Meanwhile,
an upper-level high sits off the Carolina coast. Hot and humid
conditions today will continue, with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Scattered cumulus clouds exist over most
of the CWA north of an area of convection over SE Missouri and
NE Arkansas, which is moving to the NNE. A few pop-up showers
have begun in Benton and St. Clair counties.

Heat indices today will reach from 95-100 F. Be sure to take proper
heat protection measures if working outside, such as taking
frequent breaks, and staying cool and hydrated.

Pop-up thundershowers like those in St. Clair and Benton counties
are possible this afternoon into the evening (15-30% chances),
mostly in the area to the east of Highway 65. Precipitable water
values in the area are high (1.5"-2"), so the main hazards from
any of these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and
lightning.

Going from tonight into Tuesday, lows will reach the lower 70s and
upper 60s. Temperatures increase again tomorrow into the
mid-80s. As is common for this time of year, there is a chance
of pop-up thundershowers (15-40% chances), mostly east of
Highway 65, with locally heavy rain and thunder again as the
main hazards. Breezy conditions are also expected, with
southerly winds of 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph. Warm and
humid conditions will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with lows again in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and highs on
Wednesday in the mid to upper-80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Throughout the week, hot conditions are expected to continue.
From Thursday through Monday, highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dewpoints are expected to
decrease slightly into the mid-60s, which will lower rain
chances on Thursday and Friday. Some models show a frontal
passage sometime this weekend, which would increase
precipitation chances, but nothing definitive yet.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day temperature outlook
continues to show a 50-60% for above average temperatures for June
25th-July 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 525 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period. A cumulus field over western MO is expected to mostly
clear within the next few hours tonight. Pop- up thunderstorms
may occur this evening, although these storms, if any appear at
all, will be east of each TAF site. Some scattered pop-up
thunderstorms are also possible (15-30% chances)Tuesday
afternoon, again primarily in the eastern half of our CWA, so
went with a prob30 for BBG. Southerly winds of 10-15 knots will
increase tomorrow morning to 15-20 knots, with gusts up to 25
knots. Low- level wind shear may reach 40-45 knots from 04z-11z
at SGF and JLN, and from 03z-07z at BBG, as the nocturnal low-
level jet strengthens overnight.
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&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Kenny