-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
536
FXUS64 KSHV 220227
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
927 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Prevailing upper-level ridge across the region to maintain stable
conditions through the remainder of the night. However, ongoing
convection across the Texas panhandle could allow for high
ceilings to overspread the ArkLaTex after midnight. At the
surface, high pressure to maintain a weak pressure gradient
leading to light winds areawide. Expect overnight low temperatures
to average in the lower 70s. No updated needed at this time. /05/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The last official day of the summer season still certainly feels
like it if you`ve stepped outside this afternoon as temperatures
range from the lower to mid 90s across the region. Fortunately,
dew points have mixed out fairly well today and humidity levels
are tolerable with peak heat index values generally averaging in
the upper 90s to lower 100s. Another relatively warm overnight
period lies ahead with low temperatures ranging from the lower to
mid 70s under mostly clear skies as the afternoon cumulus field
will quickly fade after sunset.

One more day of above average temperatures is expected on Sunday
with the upper-level ridge will remain anchored along the Gulf
coast, albeit flattening out somewhat as an upper trough begins to
eject E/SE from the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains.
This trough will help to usher a cold front into the Middle Red
Red Valley of southern Oklahoma and north central Texas by late
Sunday afternoon. As this front slowly eases farther SE by Sunday
evening into the overnight hours, some isolated convection will be
possible north of the I-30 corridor. Otherwise, the remainder of
the region will remain dry through the short-term period with just
some patchy fog possible during the pre-dawn hours late tonight
and again on Sunday night.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Starting the new work week will bring some changes to the forecast
in the form of slightly milder temperatures and increasingly better
rain chances as the week progresses. This will occur first with the
aforementioned cold front, although the front will be relatively
weak and likely stall out across the region through the mid-week
timeframe. In fact, high temperatures will still be in the upper
80s to lower 90s across much of the region through at least
Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a deeper trough and much stronger cold front will
quickly spill SE from the Great Plains with slightly higher rain
chances and noticeably milder temperatures expected through the
remainder of the week. Highs will generally range from the upper
70s to mid 80s behind the front with the associated upper-level
low possibly becoming closed off invof our region and prolonging
rain chances through the end of the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the 22/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some MVFR/low cloud exceptions in the southern
airspace near KLFK from 22/10-15Z. Elsewhere, southerly winds will
keep the atmosphere just mixed enough for VFR. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  70  95  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  94  69  84 /   0   0  10  50
TXK  74  96  73  89 /   0   0   0  30
ELD  70  94  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  73  95  74  89 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  72  94  71  90 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  71  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16