-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
178
FXUS64 KSHV 190907
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
407 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical moisture, associated with a very broad and convectively
anemic Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, continues to be present over the Ark-La-Tex. The 00z
sounding from KSHV advertised PWATs around 2", showcasing how rich
the local airmass is. This airmass is responsible for the light
reflectivity returns across Louisiana and Texas this morning.
Similar to yesterday, no guarantee that all of what is being
advertised on regional reflectivity is actually reaching the
ground, but a few area ASOS sites near and north of KPOE have
reported light rain. As a result, and looking at the radar trends
over the last three hours, have gone ahead and carried slight
chance PoPs as far north as the I-20 corridor in Louisiana
through sunrise, with slight chance PoPs extending has far north
as the I-30 corridor into the early afternoon. Given minimal
confidence however, percentages will remain low.

By the mid afternoon, the upper ridge that is currently present
across much of the eastern CONUS will begin to expand, and enter the
Ark-La-Tex. This will start to displace the highest PWATs to the
south and west, conveniently located where the best chance for a few
thunderstorms will be possible around peak daytime heating. Another
afternoon of maxT`s at and around 90 deg F will support just enough
instability for a few pop-up thunderstorms, but coverage will be
isolated. After sunset, the radar will go quiet and the turn
towards a dry and very hot finish to the week will begin.

By Thursday morning, heights will continue to climb as the ridge
axis shifts west across the Ohio River Valley. This will begin to
introduce a drier atmospheric column aloft, as the aforementioned
tropical moisture gradient drifts into central Texas. Naturally,
rain chances will be cut and the heat will begin to prevail as
temperatures around 90 deg F this afternoon return to the mid 90`s
for Thursday. Given how temperatures have over-performed this
week under cloud coverage, would not at all be shocked if
temperatures are a few degrees warmer than the currently
advertised Thursday highs as skies will clear through the morning.
Only saving grace at this time is that the axis of the ridge
remains NE of the local area. This changes however as we head into
the upcoming weekend.

RK
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The long term package is hot. There is no other way to put it
unfortunately as many of us begin to see our first true taste of
summer. The reason is simple, the upper-ridge slowly slides SW into
the southern CONUS and as a result, temperatures will continue to
climb through the end of the week, heading into the weekend. At the
same time, apparent temperatures will maintain the triple digits,
increasing through the weekend and into early next week.

High temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 90`s just
about area-wide, and given the lack of significant rainfall from PTC
One, it is possible temperatures could briefly climb a degree or two
higher than the current forecast. At the same time, it is
becoming increasing likely that heat products will be needed at
some point this weekend, potentially extending into the start of
the upcoming week. It will be a few days before any products are
issued, but with confidence increasing, it is worth mentioning
given that the upcoming weekend looks promising for outdoor
recreational activities.

It is important to practice proper heat safety if planning to be
outdoors for extended periods of time. This includes, but not
limited to, taking frequent breaks in shaded and cooled areas,
and staying hydrated. This is especially true as we return to the
summer heat we all know and love around here over the next few
months. It is worth mentioning rain chances do return to the area
on the back end of the package, but at this time are on the lower
side.

RK
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our terminal airspace
late this evening. Feel like those conditions should hold through
much of the night but cannot rule out a stray IFR/MVFR ceiling
aross our southern and southwest half where better low level
moisture resides. Mid and high level cloud cover will continue to
slowly expand west across the remainder of our airspace this TAF
period and that may tend to hold diurnally driven instability down
and thus, convection at bay. Only mentioned VCSH and VCTS at the
LFK terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours as a
result. Look for mostly east to northeast winds today near 8-12kts
with higher gusts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  92  76  95  74 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  91  73  92  71 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  90  71  92  69 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  93  74  94  71 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  89  71  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  90  75  94  73 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  90  75  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  91  75  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13