-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
282
FXUS64 KSHV 201901
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Short term period remains heavily influenced by surface high
pressure, with an elongated mid-level ridge pattern set up across
the Four State Region. Aside from the routine afternoon cumulus
field, the weekend will remain dry but without question,
unseasonably warm. Highs through the short term period will see
afternoon maxT`s climb into the mid to upper 90`s for Saturday, with
a rinse and repeat effect into Sunday. The good news, heat indices
should remain below advisory criteria, but staying hydrated will
still be crucial if outdoors for extended periods.

In a forecast package of much uncertainty and lack of model
agreement, mostly in the long term period, the short term handle
on the mid-level flow, and gradual eastward shift of the surface
high pressure tucked underneath has been well modeled. This has
led to increasing confidence in the weekend forecast. Changes look
to arrive heading into the new week as a frontal boundary will
approach the region late Sunday night.

KNAPP
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

As mentioned in the short term package, the long term period becomes
rather complicated given various synoptic solutions through mid-
week. To start, troughing across the mid-section of the CONUS will
support surface cyclogenesis that will drag a cold front south and
towards the Four State Region by late Sunday night, into Monday
morning. Influence of the approaching surface boundary will be
noticeable as cloud cover increases through Monday morning. Forcing
associated with the front, and weak instability ahead of the
boundary will support the chance of isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly confined across the I-20 corridor in East
Texas, and north to the I-30 corridor across SE Oklahoma and SW
Arkansas. This front will slowly work southward overnight Monday,
into Tuesday/Wednesday where guidance advertises a weaker
boundary along the I-20 corridor. Here and south is where the
PoPs, though low end at this time, are currently presented and
therefore calling for a slight chance for showers and storms.

Mid-week is where the forecast takes a turn given disagreement
amongst much of the guidance surrounding multiple weather features
making the headlines. For starters, and when compared to this
morning, models have started to come to an agreement for some better
forcing aloft in the vicinty of the Four State Region by Wednesday
morning. Timing and intensity discrepancies do prevail
unfortunately so confidence, though better than previous, still
remains low at this time. Second, an area has been outlined by
the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical development
next week. This area shaded across the Yucatan Peninsula has been
given a 50 percent chance of development in the next 7 days.
Ensemble solutions continue to paint a picture of much
uncertainty, in both track and intensity. This will need to be
closely monitored in the coming days as disorganized showers and
thunderstorms begin to develop east of Belize and north of
Honduras early next week.

Aside from the hints at some tropical development by mid-week,
and outside of the aforementioned PoPs through Wednesday, the
back half of the package is advertised to be on the drier side for
now. This of course comes with much uncertainty surrounding any
possible tropical development and the general routine changes
expected within a forecast this far into the package.

KNAPP
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, the dog days of summer role on into
fall over this weekend. Light and variable winds with little
gradient, but S/SW ends up prevailing by lunch in most cases with
heating and the arriving empty sea breeze. The daily cu field
will be most of our clouds, but some cirrus over the top of the
upper ridge residing in TX in and out. Generally, SKC overnight
with some light daybreak BR 10-13Z. Still looking to early next
week for convection along an approaching front/closed low. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  75  97  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  95  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  70  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...24