-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
114
FXUS64 KSHV 210522
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Surface and upper-level ridge prevailing across the region has
allowed for light winds and clear skies areawide. Stable
conditions expected to persist through daybreak with overnight
lows forecast to fall into the lower 70s. No changes are needed
to the forecast this evening. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Short term period remains heavily influenced by surface high
pressure, with an elongated mid-level ridge pattern set up across
the Four State Region. Aside from the routine afternoon cumulus
field, the weekend will remain dry but without question,
unseasonably warm. Highs through the short term period will see
afternoon maxT`s climb into the mid to upper 90`s for Saturday, with
a rinse and repeat effect into Sunday. The good news, heat indices
should remain below advisory criteria, but staying hydrated will
still be crucial if outdoors for extended periods.

In a forecast package of much uncertainty and lack of model
agreement, mostly in the long term period, the short term handle
on the mid-level flow, and gradual eastward shift of the surface
high pressure tucked underneath has been well modeled. This has
led to increasing confidence in the weekend forecast. Changes look
to arrive heading into the new week as a frontal boundary will
approach the region late Sunday night.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

As mentioned in the short term package, the long term period becomes
rather complicated given various synoptic solutions through mid-
week. To start, troughing across the mid-section of the CONUS will
support surface cyclogenesis that will drag a cold front south and
towards the Four State Region by late Sunday night, into Monday
morning. Influence of the approaching surface boundary will be
noticeable as cloud cover increases through Monday morning. Forcing
associated with the front, and weak instability ahead of the
boundary will support the chance of isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly confined across the I-20 corridor in East
Texas, and north to the I-30 corridor across SE Oklahoma and SW
Arkansas. This front will slowly work southward overnight Monday,
into Tuesday/Wednesday where guidance advertises a weaker
boundary along the I-20 corridor. Here and south is where the
PoPs, though low end at this time, are currently presented and
therefore calling for a slight chance for showers and storms.

Mid-week is where the forecast takes a turn given disagreement
amongst much of the guidance surrounding multiple weather features
making the headlines. For starters, and when compared to this
morning, models have started to come to an agreement for some better
forcing aloft in the vicinty of the Four State Region by Wednesday
morning. Timing and intensity discrepancies do prevail
unfortunately so confidence, though better than previous, still
remains low at this time. Second, an area has been outlined by
the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical development
next week. This area shaded across the Yucatan Peninsula has been
given a 50 percent chance of development in the next 7 days.
Ensemble solutions continue to paint a picture of much
uncertainty, in both track and intensity. This will need to be
closely monitored in the coming days as disorganized showers and
thunderstorms begin to develop east of Belize and north of
Honduras early next week.

Aside from the hints at some tropical development by mid-week,
and outside of the aforementioned PoPs through Wednesday, the
back half of the package is advertised to be on the drier side for
now. This of course comes with much uncertainty surrounding any
possible tropical development and the general routine changes
expected within a forecast this far into the package.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the 21/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing clear
skies across the region so I have prevailed SKC for all terminals
through at least 21/18z. Surface observations are showing some BR
and visibility around 5sm early this morning so I have a TEMPO
group in for KSHV, KMLU, KTXK, and KLFK as some patchy fog will be
possible. Aside from this, winds will be out of the south below 10
kts throughout this period. /33/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  97  75  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  94  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  70  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  96  74  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  96  72  93  73 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...33